Even if the United States and Iran finalise a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring an end to the conflict that has shaken global energy markets, American consumers and businesses could face elevated fuel prices for months to come, according to energy analysts and business owners. The warning comes as Washington and Tehran inch toward a potential memorandum of understanding that could restore operations on one of the world's most critical shipping corridors.

The Human Cost of Higher Fuel Prices

Consumers across the United States are already feeling the strain. The conflict has pushed inflation to its highest level in three years, with rising costs rippling through fuel, groceries, and air travel. Nyah Phillips, a resident of Michigan, described the pressure bluntly: 'It is really hard to keep up. I planned my gas budget money for one price and now — now it’s double that.' She added that wages have not kept pace with the surge: 'The prices are going up, but our wages are not reflecting and covering that gap of prices going up. So it is like a constant game of catch-up.'

Business Owners Bear the Brunt

James Burg, chief executive of a Michigan trucking company operating more than 100 trucks, said diesel costs have surged sharply since the conflict began. 'Our spend has gone from about $70,000 a week to about $100,000 to $110,000 a week,' Burg said. 'There’s no question. We’re losing more margin now. With higher costs of diesel.' The experience mirrors that of logistics operators nationwide, for whom fuel is one of the largest variable costs.

What Energy Analysts Are Saying

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, acknowledged that some oil has already begun moving through alternative routes, offering partial relief to markets. 'The good news in recent days and weeks is we’ve seen public reports that the Trump administration has been able to free up some of that trapped oil,' McNally said. However, he cautioned that the global oil market has absorbed a historic shock. 'We’ve lost well over a billion barrels of oil in the world market,' he said. Even with a Hormuz reopening, McNally warned that depleted inventories and exhausted emergency buffers could sustain upward price pressure through the summer. 'Many analysts, us included, think there could be upward pressure on prices in July, in August, and maybe in September,' he said.

Trump’s Optimism vs Market Reality

President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that prices will fall rapidly once the conflict concludes. 'It’s going to come down like a rock,' Trump said while discussing inflation and energy prices. Analysts, however, are less sanguine. McNally warned that if negotiations collapse and shipping disruptions persist, the consequences could be severe: 'I’m very concerned we could see oil prices skyrocket later this summer,' he said, adding that gasoline prices could return to record levels. This comes amid a broader pattern in which geopolitical supply shocks have historically taken quarters — not weeks — to fully unwind at the consumer level.

What Happens Next

The outcome of US-Iran negotiations will be closely watched by energy markets, logistics firms, and policymakers alike. A durable deal that restores full Strait of Hormuz traffic could begin easing wholesale prices, but analysts caution that the pass-through to retail fuel costs is rarely immediate. With global inventories already drawn down and summer demand peaking, the window for a rapid price correction appears narrow.