World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said on 5 October 2026 that global trade is proving unexpectedly resilient in the face of aggressive US tariffs, the Iran war, elevated energy prices, and mounting pressure on the rules-based trading system — with AI-related products accounting for 42 per cent of last year's goods trade growth. Speaking in an interview with CNN, Okonjo-Iweala described the performance as surprising even to WTO economists, while cautioning that the system's strength should not be mistaken for robustness.

Trade Growth Far Exceeds WTO Forecasts

The WTO had projected global goods trade growth of approximately 2.4 to 2.5 per cent for the previous year. The actual figure came in at 4.6 per cent — nearly double the forecast. When WTO economists investigated the drivers, they found that trade in AI-related hardware and software, including semiconductors and processors, contributed 42 per cent of that expansion.

The outperformance has carried into 2026. The WTO had projected goods trade growth of 1.9 per cent this year, accounting for headwinds from tariffs, high energy costs, and strategic choke points including the Strait of Hormuz. First-quarter data showed growth running at 3.2 per cent — again well ahead of expectations.

'So again, far more than what we had projected. That doesn't mean we should be complacent,' Okonjo-Iweala said.

72 Per Cent of World Goods Trade Still on WTO Terms

Despite the upheaval, Okonjo-Iweala noted that 72 per cent of world goods trade continues to take place under WTO most-favoured-nation (MFN) terms, providing businesses with a degree of stability and predictability. 'We find that 72 percent of world trade, world goods trade is still taking place on WTO terms on most favored nation terms. That's what we call a predictable stable,' she said.

She attributed businesses' continued reliance on the multilateral system to their fundamental need for certainty. 'We talk to businesses, and businesses need some stability and predictability in the way they trade,' she said. This is particularly notable given the backdrop: a fundamental shift in US trade policy under President Donald Trump, heightened Washington–Beijing tensions, and disruption to energy markets and global shipping routes.

AI Boom: Concentrated Gains and Bubble Risks

Okonjo-Iweala was candid about the uncertainties embedded in the AI-driven trade surge. 'We don't know whether this can be sustained or it's a bit of a bubble. So, we have to watch out for that,' she said. She also flagged that the benefits of AI-related trade growth are heavily concentrated geographically, flowing 'mainly to East Asia and North America, the United States mainly.' She warned that excluding the rest of the world from AI-driven commerce 'could be a bit problematic.'

Notably, this concentration echoes longstanding concerns about technology-driven globalisation benefiting advanced economies disproportionately — a pattern that has historically fuelled the very protectionist sentiment now threatening the WTO framework.

System Resilient but Not Robust, WTO Chief Warns

Okonjo-Iweala drew a sharp distinction between the trade system's current resilience and its long-term robustness. 'It doesn't mean that the system is resilient, but is it robust? And I don't think it is,' she said. She acknowledged a 'trust deficit' among WTO members that would make reforms difficult, even as she expressed optimism that members were increasingly accepting the need for modernisation.

'I used to think that with what is going on — the worst disruption for global trade in 80 years — that we wouldn't see these kinds of numbers,' she said, adding that the persistence of the data had led her to believe 'there's a core of the rules that really work.' The WTO-led system is credited, she noted, with lifting 1.5 billion people out of poverty.

Digital and Green Trade Add New Dimensions

Beyond goods, Okonjo-Iweala pointed to structural shifts reshaping international commerce. Digital trade is expanding, she said, with digitally delivered services growing even faster. She highlighted the importance of services trade for the United States, which holds a positive balance in that category — a nuance often lost in tariff-focused debates. Green trade, meanwhile, has surpassed $2 trillion, adding another layer to a global trading landscape increasingly defined by technology and energy transition rather than traditional manufacturing flows.

With first-quarter 2026 data already surprising to the upside, the WTO's next growth assessment will be closely watched by policymakers and markets navigating an unusually volatile trade environment.