Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative has catalysed a measurable shift in India's defence industrial base — creating dedicated manufacturing corridors, raising foreign direct investment ceilings, and nurturing a defence-tech startup ecosystem that is already generating export revenue. According to a report published in online magazine The Wire China, this trajectory positions India as a uniquely viable partner for the United States as it grapples with China's overwhelming manufacturing dominance.

India's Defence Export Ambitions

India has set a defence export target of approximately $6 billion by 2029, a dramatic leap from roughly $80 million a decade ago. Hundreds of companies are already operational in the sector, with more entering the ecosystem. The scale of this expansion, analysts note, reflects a structural — not merely aspirational — shift in India's defence manufacturing posture.

The China Manufacturing Imbalance

Mike Kuiken, Vice Chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and Leland Miller, a Commissioner on the same body, wrote in The Wire China that the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing served as a fresh reminder of an industrial imbalance that continues to work against Washington. According to the two experts, China's manufacturing base now exceeds that of the US, Japan, and Germany combined. Even the combined industrial weight of the United States and Europe cannot match Chinese scale, making India, in their words, 'the only way the maths begins to work.'

'That is not a matter of preference but strategic necessity,' Kuiken and Miller wrote, noting that India is 'a country shaped by sustained Chinese pressure along its northern border, with defence modernisation increasingly organised around that reality.'

What the US-India Documents Say — and Don't Deliver

The experts acknowledged that the bilateral framework has advanced on paper. In October 2024, the two nations agreed to a roadmap covering joint research, co-development, supply security, and innovation bridges between American and Indian defence startups — building on years of bipartisan effort. In 2023, then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer used the Munich Security Conference to argue that the US and Europe could not outcompete China alone and that India needed to be central to the answer.

However, Kuiken and Miller argued that signing additional agreements while the underlying technology-sharing architecture remains unchanged is insufficient. Indian concerns — that increasing bilateral engagement has not translated into access to core technologies — are, in their assessment, 'well justified.'

Washington's Bottleneck Problem

'The strategic argument for a deeper and more meaningful US-India partnership has been settled in Washington for three years, but the architecture has not moved. That is not principally a failure on India's side of the table; it is ours,' the two experts stated. They identified the primary obstacle as Washington's own institutional inertia: export-control regimes, complex procurement rules, financing instruments, and technology-sharing frameworks designed for a different strategic era. 'Until that architecture changes, the partnership will continue to operate below its potential. Every year that gap persists is another year in which Beijing consolidates its industrial and technological advantage,' they warned.

What Comes Next

The report's central argument is that intent in Washington is no longer the constraint — execution is. For India, the implication is that its own defence industrial growth, however impressive, will hit a ceiling unless the US overhauls the mechanisms governing how it shares technology with strategic partners. With the 2029 export target firmly in focus, the pressure is now on both capitals to move from roadmaps to results.