US-India trade could hit $500 billion by 2030, says KPMG-AMCHAM report
Synopsis
A joint KPMG-AMCHAM report projects US-India bilateral trade hitting $500 billion by 2030, backed by India's $87.3 billion in US exports in FY26 and a 40 per cent share of America's generic drug supply. The real question is whether both governments can close the execution gap — on logistics, regulation, and market access — before the window of global supply chain realignment closes.
Key Takeaways
US-India bilateral trade could reach $500 billion by 2030 , according to a joint report by KPMG in India and AMCHAM .
India's exports to the US reached $87.3 billion in FY26 , representing 20 per cent of total merchandise exports.
India supplies nearly 40 per cent of generic drugs consumed in the US .
Semiconductors , defence , and clean energy are forecast to drive the next wave of bilateral trade growth.
Key gaps flagged: logistics, regulatory coherence, and standards alignment remain barriers to deeper integration.
US-India bilateral trade is entering a high-growth phase and could reach $500 billion by 2030, driven by stronger supply chains, technology collaboration, and deeper integration across manufacturing and services, according to a joint report released on Thursday, 21 May 2025. The findings, published by KPMG in India and the American Chamber of Commerce in India (AMCHAM), signal a structural shift in one of the world's most consequential trade corridors.
Key Trade Figures
India's cumulative exports to the US reached $87.3 billion in FY26, accounting for 20 per cent of total merchandise exports. Electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and gems and jewellery continued to anchor bilateral trade flows. Notably, India supplies nearly 40 per cent of generic drugs consumed in the US, reinforcing its critical role in global healthcare supply chains.
What the Report Says
Neeraj Bansal, Partner and Head of India Global at KPMG in India, said: 'As global value chains realign, India's scale, cost advantage and talent base position it as a trusted partner for US businesses. The next phase will be defined by execution, translating policy momentum into resilient, long-term economic outcomes.'
Manoj Kumar Vijai, Non-Executive Chairman and Office Managing Partner, Mumbai, added that the focus must shift towards execution — strengthening supply chains, improving market access, and ensuring regulatory predictability as trade expands across key sectors.
Sectors Driving the Next Wave
The report identified semiconductors, defence, and clean energy as the primary engines of the next growth phase. Strategic priorities outlined include manufacturing integration, technology assurance, MSME value-chain upgrades, and energy security. The US-India corridor is described as an emerging engine of global growth, underpinned by rising trade volumes and increasing strategic alignment across manufacturing, technology, energy, and talent mobility.
Execution Gaps to Bridge
Despite the optimistic trajectory, the report flagged that strengthening logistics, regulatory coherence, and standards alignment remain critical to deeper economic integration. With strong momentum across electronics, pharmaceuticals, and high-value services, the gap between policy ambition and on-the-ground execution remains the central challenge. This comes amid broader global supply chain realignment, with several multinational firms actively diversifying away from single-country dependencies — a trend that has accelerated since 2020.
What Comes Next
Analysts and industry bodies will watch whether ongoing trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington translate into a formal bilateral trade agreement, which could provide the regulatory predictability both sides say is necessary to sustain momentum toward the $500 billion target.
Point of View
But the report's own language — 'execution', 'regulatory coherence', 'predictable market access' — signals that the structural plumbing is still incomplete. India has heard similar projections before: the $100 billion bilateral trade milestone took years longer than projected. The generic drugs statistic is the most telling data point in the report — a 40 per cent share of the US market built without a formal trade agreement. The real test is whether a bilateral trade deal, reportedly still in negotiation, arrives before competing corridors — Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia — lock in the supply chain diversification that India is currently positioned to capture.
NationPress
10 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the US-India $500 billion trade target?
The $500 billion figure is a projection from a joint report by KPMG in India and AMCHAM, released on 21 May 2025, estimating that bilateral trade between the US and India could reach that level by 2030, driven by supply chain integration, technology collaboration, and expansion in manufacturing and services.
How much did India export to the US in FY26?
India's cumulative exports to the US reached $87.3 billion in FY26, accounting for 20 per cent of total merchandise exports. Electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and gems and jewellery were the primary export categories.
Which sectors are expected to drive US-India trade growth next?
According to the KPMG-AMCHAM report, semiconductors, defence, and clean energy are forecast to be the primary drivers of the next growth phase, alongside continued strength in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and high-value services.
What share of US generic drugs does India supply?
India supplies nearly 40 per cent of generic drugs used in the US, making it a critical node in America's healthcare supply chain. This position has been built over decades without a formal bilateral trade agreement in place.
What are the main barriers to deeper US-India trade integration?
The report identified logistics strengthening, regulatory coherence, and standards alignment as the critical gaps. Both KPMG and AMCHAM executives stressed that translating policy momentum into execution — through tighter supply linkages and predictable market access — is the central challenge going forward.
