Benjamin Horton, dean of the school of energy and environment at City University of Hong Kong and the latest recipient of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Axford Medal — the most prestigious honour in Asian climate and earth science — has issued a stark warning that the planet has entered a period of dangerous volatility, as Super Typhoon Bavi churns toward Taiwan and eastern mainland China. Speaking on 10 July 2026, Horton said historical weather patterns can no longer be trusted as a guide to future risk.

A system at the edge

'Look at what is happening to the planet. It is spiralling out of control. Climate is accelerating far faster than we thought it would,' Horton said. He added: 'The Earth is incredibly sensitive. It has a planetary boundary, and we are right at the edge of it. That means that the system is prone to extremes, which we find very hard to predict exactly where and when.'

The warning carries particular weight given Horton's newly conferred recognition as the foremost climate scientist in the Asia-Pacific region. His remarks come as Bavi exemplifies the very unpredictability he describes.

Why it matters: Planetary boundaries already breached

The concept of planetary boundaries defines the environmental thresholds within which human civilisation can safely operate. According to the Stockholm Resilience Centre, humanity has already crossed seven of the nine critical limits, including those related to climate change, land use, and fresh water.

Once these boundaries are crossed, the risk of abrupt, self-reinforcing changes in the Earth system rises sharply — making extreme weather events both more frequent and harder to anticipate.

The Bavi threat: Rapid intensification and forecasting failures

Typhoons such as Bavi that undergo rapid intensification pose severe forecasting challenges, according to climate experts. Within just one to two days, a relatively modest storm can escalate into a major hazard as maximum sustained winds surge abruptly, often fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean waters and favourable atmospheric conditions.

This pattern of rapid intensification has been observed with increasing frequency across the Pacific, echoing the behaviour seen in Atlantic hurricanes such as Hurricane Sandy, and underscoring the global nature of the accelerating climate crisis.

The competitive backdrop: Science meets policy inaction

Despite repeated warnings from the scientific community, the gap between climate projections and policy response remains wide. Horton, who is based in Hong Kong and has previously worked in Philadelphia and the United States, has long argued that the window for manageable intervention is narrowing. Climate phenomena such as El Niño further amplify baseline warming, supercharging storm systems and drought cycles simultaneously.

The Stockholm Resilience Centre's planetary boundary framework, widely cited in international climate negotiations, now indicates that the margin for error is effectively gone in multiple critical systems.

What's next

As Super Typhoon Bavi makes its approach, emergency authorities across Taiwan, eastern China, and the broader Asia-Pacific region are on high alert. The storm's trajectory and intensity will serve as a real-time stress test of regional disaster-preparedness systems — and of whether the humanitarian warnings from scientists like Horton are being translated into meaningful infrastructure and policy responses.