A potential trade agreement between India and the United States could significantly expand bilateral commerce, though the sheer breadth of unresolved issues may prolong negotiations considerably, Trade and Economic Council (TCC) President John Kavulich said on Tuesday, 20 October 2026. Speaking from New Delhi, Kavulich noted that while both governments have signalled forward movement, diplomatic language has obscured how much concrete progress has actually been made.

What Both Sides Are Signalling

Kavulich said both countries had indicated they were moving closer to an agreement, but cautioned against reading too much into optimistic public statements. 'Both countries are signalling that they are close to each other, but they are speaking in diplomatic language,' he said, adding that it remained unclear whether the two sides had resolved major contentious issues or might simply set them aside to announce agreements on less contested areas.

This ambiguity is not unusual in trade diplomacy. Broad-level consensus is often easier to project than it is to sustain once negotiations move into specific provisions — tariffs, intellectual property standards, digital trade rules, and agricultural market access are among the areas historically difficult to bridge between New Delhi and Washington.

Scale of the Economic Relationship

Kavulich stressed that a trade deal was important for both economies given the scale of their existing relationship. Bilateral trade between India and the US is already worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually, making any formalised agreement a significant multiplier for both sides. 'It is difficult to say whether they will be able to agree on everything,' he noted, highlighting the complexity of crafting a comprehensive pact between two economies as structurally different as India and the United States.

Notably, India and the US have been in various stages of trade dialogue for years, with a limited early-harvest package floated as a stepping stone to a full agreement. The current round of talks has added urgency given the broader realignment of global supply chains and the US push to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

The Russian Oil Complication

On the politically sensitive question of India's imports of Russian crude oil, Kavulich acknowledged the issue has emerged as a pressure point in the bilateral relationship. He pointed out that Indian companies import Russian crude, refine and process it, and in some cases re-export the resulting products to third markets — a practice that has drawn scrutiny from US Congress members, non-governmental organisations, Ukraine, and the European Union.

However, he noted that the issue carries different political weight for US President Donald Trump than it does for other American political stakeholders. Kavulich acknowledged that energy affordability remains a practical consideration for importing nations, and that consumers and economies generally prefer to source energy from the cheapest available suppliers — a reality that complicates any blanket demand to cut Russian oil ties.

What Happens Next

The pace of negotiations will depend on how both governments manage the gap between broad political intent and granular trade specifics. Observers expect that the two sides may opt for a phased or sectoral approach rather than a sweeping single agreement. Any announcement in the near term is likely to cover areas where consensus already exists, while harder issues — including intellectual property, e-commerce regulations, and energy sourcing — may be deferred to later rounds.