Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is reportedly pursuing a twin-track strategy to fuel instability in India — shifting Kashmir recruitment away from local youth toward operatives sourced from states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, while simultaneously directing proxy terror groups to sharply escalate a disinformation campaign targeting India through Bangladesh-based networks, according to Indian intelligence officials.

Why Local Kashmir Recruitment Has Stalled

Indian intelligence assessments indicate that post the abrogation of Article 370, multiple recruitment drives by groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen have largely failed in Jammu and Kashmir. Officials attribute this to two key shifts: a marked decline in local interest in militancy and a booming tourism economy that has given residents economic alternatives to radicalisation.

The peaceful conduct of the September 2024 legislative elections in Jammu and Kashmir — the region's first assembly polls since the 2019 reorganisation — was cited by an Intelligence Bureau (IB) official as evidence that local populations have expressed a clear preference for political engagement over violence. “Locals in Jammu and Kashmir come under the scanner very quickly,” the official said, explaining the ISI's pivot to external recruitment.

Pan-India Scouting: The Kerala Precedent

According to officials, the ISI has previously demonstrated the viability of this model. In 2008, it successfully infiltrated four operatives from Kerala into Jammu and Kashmir — Muhammed Fayaz and Muhammed Fahiz from Kannur, Abdul Raheem from Mallapuram, and Muhammed Yasin from Ernakulam — without triggering any intelligence alerts until they were killed by security forces in the Lolab forests of Kupwara. A fifth operative, Abdul Jabeer, reportedly escaped back to Kerala before being arrested.

Officials say the ISI is now planning to replicate and scale this approach. Recruits are reportedly being scouted in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala — states where Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) have previously radicalised youth using Kashmir-related propaganda. “Both these groups have heavily used Kashmir-related propaganda to radicalise the youth. Such youth will easily fall into the ISI’s trap,” a second official said.

The Bangladesh Disinformation Front

In a parallel operation, the ISI has reportedly directed its proxy outfits — The Resistance Front (TRF), People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), Kashmir Tigers (KT), and Allah Tigers (AT) — to pivot toward Bangladesh-based influence operations. These groups, described by officials as proxies of LeT and JeM, were originally created to spread propaganda against the Indian state.

According to officials, Islamabad deliberately adopted a wait-and-watch posture toward Bangladesh, first consolidating a diplomatic foothold before activating propaganda channels. The disinformation campaign reportedly involves creating multiple social media handles impersonating Indian Army personnel and government officials, and misusing logos of Indian media channels on videos designed to spread anti-India content.

Notably, officials say the Bangladesh pivot is also a deliberate tactical feint — intended to divert Indian intelligence resources away from the Kashmir Valley as the pan-India recruitment drive gets underway.

Strategic Calculus Behind the Dual Approach

Officials assess that the ISI aims to rebuild a force presence in Jammu and Kashmir at a time when both cross-border infiltration and local recruitment have declined sharply. Beyond operational capacity, recruiting from multiple states is said to serve a secondary propaganda purpose: projecting the Kashmir cause as a pan-national concern rather than a purely regional one.

Indian security agencies are now on heightened alert across the identified states, as the ISI is reportedly set to synchronise the ramp-up of its Bangladesh disinformation campaign with the activation of its broader pan-India recruitment strategy.