Pakistan's military-driven 'hard-state doctrine' is increasingly failing on its own terms, deepening alienation across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh, according to a report published in Spain-based media outlet Atalayar. The analysis, authored by Moroccan researcher and journalist Fatima El Hashimi, argues that a doctrine built around discipline and security must ultimately be judged by whether it delivers lasting stability — and by that measure, it is falling short.

The Central Contradiction

The report identifies a core paradox that, it argues, Rawalpindi can no longer conceal: intensified security operations are not producing greater safety, and tighter military control is not translating into political legitimacy. Across the affected regions, the same cycle repeats — restrict movement, arrest leaders, suspend communications, deploy force, attribute unrest to foreign actors, and brand dissent as anti-national.

"That is the hard state's real weakness. It can occupy space, silence streets, and manufacture temporary order, but it cannot create legitimacy through fear. If the security establishment cannot protect civilians, reduce casualties, resolve grievances, or win trust, then the hard state is not a doctrine of strength. It is state failure dressed as discipline," Hashimi wrote.

PoK: Civil Rights Treated as a Security Threat

According to the report, Pakistan's internal contradiction is most visible in PoK. While Islamabad projects itself internationally as a champion of Kashmiri rights, within the territory it has responded to local mobilisation with heavy-handed security measures — treating what the report describes as a civil rights movement as a security threat rather than a political warning.

The ongoing unrest has pushed Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, and other parts of the region into strikes, clashes, barricades, arrests, and heavy security deployments. Dozens have reportedly been killed and injured during clashes with Pakistani forces in the occupied territory.

Balochistan: Resource-Rich, Chronically Deprived

Despite being Pakistan's largest province by area and one of its most resource-rich, Balochistan remains among the country's most deprived regions. Its gas reserves, mineral wealth, and coastline have long served federal and strategic interests, yet many local communities continue to face poor infrastructure, inadequate public services, and deep political marginalisation, the report noted.

Highlighting what it called the "central contradiction" of Pakistan's Balochistan policy, the report stated: "The security establishment claims it is fighting militancy, yet its broad-brush approach often pushes peaceful political space into a corner. When families asking for the whereabouts of their sons are met with arrests, mobile shutdowns, terrorism charges, and sedition narratives, the state loses moral ground even before the next security operation begins."

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh: Loyalty Demanded, Accountability Denied

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the report argues, the security establishment's failures are routinely reframed as the people's problem. Communities that have endured militancy, displacement, and repeated military operations are then asked to prove their loyalty when they seek accountability. "This is a damaging cycle: the state makes security decisions, local people absorb the cost, and those who question the cost are branded suspects," the report noted.

Across all four regions, Hashimi observed that grievances have moved beyond poverty or poor services. "They are questioning the political compact itself. Their grievance is that Pakistan's security establishment extracts resources, polices identity, criminalises protest, and then presents the resulting unrest as proof that more force is needed," she wrote.

What the Analysis Signals

The report stops short of predicting an imminent breakdown, but its conclusions are pointed: a doctrine premised on control without consent is producing diminishing returns. The widening gap between the Pakistani state's international posture and its domestic conduct, particularly in PoK, is likely to draw increasing scrutiny from regional observers and international rights bodies in the months ahead.