Pakistan's entrenched 'hard state' approach has intensified insurgency across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, deepened political fractures, and laid bare the scale of internal turmoil that persists in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) — turmoil that no volume of international goodwill can neutralise, according to a report by the International Centre for Peace Studies.

The Hard State in Practice

The report argues that Pakistan's civilian government has systematically abdicated its responsibility to resolve regional conflicts through political dialogue, instead defaulting to army intervention. Pakistani armed forces, it notes, routinely frame such conflicts as acts of sedition or routine law-and-order problems, denying the political legitimacy of protesters and accusing demonstrators of acting as proxies for foreign powers.

This deeply 'securitised' response, the report warns, does not resolve grievances — it perpetuates a cycle of mistrust, alienation, and confrontation that feeds the very instability it claims to suppress.

Insurgency Numbers Tell a Stark Story

Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa together accounted for 93 per cent of all insurgent attacks in 2023, rising to 95 per cent in both 2024 and 2025, according to the report.

Citing the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) annual security report, the document records a sharp escalation in attacks by Baloch insurgent groups — from 79 in 2022 to 110 in 2023, 202 in 2024, and 234 in 2025. Of the 435 total insurgent attacks recorded in 2025, more than 65 per cent targeted Pakistan's military and security personnel. Groups involved include the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), Balochistan Republic Guards (BRG), and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with tactics ranging from suicide bombings to direct armed assaults.

Balochistan: Decades of Marginalisation

The report traces the roots of Balochistan's crisis to entrenched economic inequality and political exclusion compounding over decades. Civil society groups in the province have continually demanded greater political autonomy, rights, and control over natural resources — demands that have run parallel to armed insurgency rather than replacing it.

The recurring themes across all affected regions, the report notes, are excessive centralisation by the federal government, economic inequality, and political marginalisation — structural conditions that military crackdowns cannot address.

PoK Unrest and Pakistan's Credibility Deficit

The report highlights that Pakistan's ruling establishment has exported the same 'hard state' playbook to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, responding to political dissent with what it describes as 'brutal crackdown and repression.' Persistent protests in PoK, the report argues, further expose the depth of Pakistan's internal crisis.

This matters beyond Pakistan's borders. The report states that Pakistan's credibility as a potential peace broker in any international context will ultimately depend on its capacity to establish peace and political stability at home — a capacity it has not yet demonstrated.

Economic Fragility Compounds the Crisis

Pakistan's structural vulnerabilities sharpen the stakes. With economic growth projected at just 3.5 per cent in 2025–26, a USD 7 billion relief package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and public debt at 68.5 per cent of GDP, the country urgently requires genuine political leadership capable of resolving internal conflicts and securing long-term stability — not a military apparatus substituting for governance.

As insurgent attacks continue their upward trajectory and PoK unrest intensifies, the report's central warning is clear: Pakistan's hard state approach is not a solution — it is the accelerant.