New Delhi, Jan 8 (NationPress) With relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban at a historic low, Pakistan is reportedly devising a plan for a regime change in Afghanistan, according to sources from the Intelligence Bureau. Although the notion of regime change has been on Pakistan's agenda for some time, the recent pressure from China to improve ties with Afghanistan has accelerated these plans.

The current Taliban leadership in Afghanistan is unwilling to reconcile with Pakistan, leading to multiple confrontations between the nations. The failure of even temporary ceasefires has pushed Pakistan to consider a significant regime change initiative.

Recognizing the challenges of garnering popular support within Afghanistan, Pakistan is aware that the Afghan Taliban is adept at managing dissent and protests. Officials indicate that Pakistan will persist in its direct confrontations with the Afghan Taliban forces to oust them from power.

However, focusing solely on the Taliban is a daunting task for Pakistan, given the multitude of domestic issues it faces, notably threats from the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). To combat these threats, Pakistan has allied with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has partnered with Lashkar-e-Taiba and is expected to concentrate efforts in regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

These areas are heavily influenced by the BLA and TTP. The strategy is for the ISKP and Lashkar-e-Taiba to unite against the BLA and TTP without increasing troop presence, allowing Pakistan to primarily target the Afghan Taliban. Despite numerous overtures, the Afghan Taliban remains uncooperative with Pakistan.

Islamabad initially expected to play a dominant role in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ascension. Although early relations seemed promising, escalating mistrust has emerged over time. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing refuge to the TTP and has alleged, without evidence, that Afghanistan is being used as a launchpad for attacks against Pakistan.

In April 2024, Afghan authorities apprehended several Tajik nationals recruited by the ISKP, who disclosed plans to travel to Quetta, Pakistan, for training, followed by deployment in Afghanistan.

An official from the Intelligence Bureau stated that the ISI is training around 1,000 individuals for this regime change mission, aiming to prepare as many ISKP operatives as possible to challenge the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The evolving situation in Afghanistan is a growing concern for Islamabad. The Afghan Taliban has proven resilient, inflicting significant damage on the Pakistan army. Additionally, within terror circles in Pakistan, there is increasing scrutiny of the ISI's deteriorating relations with the Taliban, particularly given the Taliban's current rapport with India.

During a recent dialogue, China urged Pakistan to repair its relationship with the Taliban, emphasizing the importance of Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project 2.0 (CPEC). Beijing conveyed that improving ties with the Taliban is essential for the project's success, increasing pressure on Pakistan to reconcile with the Taliban.

However, a significant level of mistrust exists between the two sides, which remains a primary obstacle to peace talks, even with third-party mediation. Another official noted that Pakistan is losing patience, and with China applying pressure, it is wholly committed to pursuing regime change in Afghanistan.

A successful regime change would greatly benefit Pakistan. Should it manage to unseat the Taliban, Pakistan could install a compliant government, akin to the situation in Bangladesh. Furthermore, it could collaborate with China on the CPEC, with Afghanistan as a participant. Ultimately, an allied regime similar to that of Bangladesh would be anti-India, which would serve Pakistan's interests well.