Could the Pakistan Army's Desperation Split Lashkar-e-Taiba as They Fight the Taliban?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, Dec 13 (NationPress) A significant miscalculation is unfolding in Pakistan as the military prepares to deploy Lashkar-e-Taiba militants to Afghanistan to confront the Taliban. The Pakistan army is grappling with continual conflicts against the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) and the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA).
Alongside these two factions, it is also engaged in combat with the Afghan Taliban. With these numerous challenges becoming increasingly unmanageable, the decision was made to send Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives to Afghanistan.
Experts warn that this strategy could yield negative consequences in the long term. Many members of Lashkar-e-Taiba are known to be sympathetic to the Taliban, with several within their ranks supporting the Taliban’s methods. High-ranking officials in both Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have expressed dissatisfaction with the escalating tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan.
These leaders consider the Taliban as natural allies, having stood against the West. Prior to the Mumbai 26/11 attacks, several within Lashkar-e-Taiba were contemplating leaving the organization to join the Taliban against Western forces. The ISI intervened to thwart this move, instead orchestrating the Mumbai 26/11 incident to redirect the focus of Lashkar-e-Taiba militants.
Officials predict that the decision to dispatch Lashkar-e-Taiba members to fight the Taliban will backfire. Many within the group are likely to revolt against leadership, leading to a potential fracture. This could also undermine recruitment efforts, as many may hesitate to combat the Taliban, whom they perceive as comrades, according to analysts.
Lashkar-e-Taiba is already suffering significant losses, having seen many of its bases, training facilities, and personnel targeted during Operation Sindoor. There have been growing attempts among militants to defect from the organization due to feelings of betrayal by the Pakistani establishment and their leaders.
While militants are often utilized in confrontations, Operation Sindoor effectively dismantled their operations unexpectedly. Many were caught off-guard, and significant infrastructure had been destroyed before they could react. Cadres have also questioned the lack of intelligence leading up to the operation.
These circumstances, combined with the silence from top leadership, have greatly demoralized the ranks. At this critical juncture, the Pakistan army's desperate decision to deploy Lashkar-e-Taiba against the Taliban is likely to exacerbate the situation.
Intelligence Bureau officials indicate that this illustrates the Pakistan army's desperation. Between Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, the latter is perceived as the more formidable group, emphasizing guerrilla tactics and fedayeen strikes. The army initially sought the Jaish-e-Mohammed to engage the Taliban; however, Masood Azhar, the outfit's leader, declined the offer, preferring not to have his men engage against the Taliban.
With no alternative, the army turned to Lashkar-e-Taiba, whose leadership readily consented. This group has never revolted against the establishment, making it Pakistan's preferred proxy. Ideally, the military would not have chosen such a precarious situation, given its ongoing losses to the BLA and TTP.
Engaging the Afghan Taliban is no simple task, and fighting on three fronts against such potent adversaries is beyond the Pakistan army's capabilities. Thus, this desperate decision was made, fully aware that it could likely backfire, a senior official noted.
The relationship between Lashkar-e-Taiba and the military is evident in remarks made by the terror outfit's commander, Qari Yakoob Sheikh. He commended Field Marshal Asim Munir upon his appointment as Pakistan's first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and stated that his group is prepared to fight alongside the Pakistan army should Kabul continue its alleged anti-Islamabad activities.