South Korea's elementary school first-grade enrolment is projected to fall below 300,000 for the first time in 2027, as the country's prolonged demographic crisis continues to hollow out its school-age population. Data compiled by the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the Korean Educational Development Institute (KEDI) show the decline is a direct consequence of a record-low birth cohort in 2020.

The Numbers Behind the Drop

Only 272,337 babies were born in 2020 — down 10 per cent from the previous year, according to South Korea's Ministry of Data and Statistics. These children, now entering the pipeline as the 2027 academic year first-grade cohort, will push enrolment below the 300,000 threshold for the first time on record.

This year, 301,442 students enrolled as elementary school freshmen — barely clearing 300,000 and already marking the lowest level since 1964, when the government began compiling related education data. The projected 2027 figure would represent roughly one-fourth of the 1.05 million first graders recorded in 1968, at the peak of South Korea's post-war baby boom.

A Decline That Will Continue Until 2030

According to the data, enrolment is expected to keep shrinking until at least 2030. However, a modest recovery in births offers some buffer: 238,317 babies were born in 2024 and 254,341 in 2025, following years of near-continuous decline. Analysts project the annual cohort will stay above 200,000 as a result of this partial rebound, though it remains far below sustainable replacement levels.

Impact on Schools and Regional Equality

The shrinking school-age population has raised acute concerns about school closures, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas where enrolment is already critically thin. Policymakers and educators warn of a widening education quality gap between cities and regions, as underpopulated schools lose teachers, resources, and eventually viability. This is not a future risk — school mergers and closures in rural South Korea have already accelerated over the past decade.

Multicultural Marriage and Birth Data

Separately, data released on Thursday showed that multicultural marriages in South Korea edged down 0.2 per cent in 2025 to 21,399, accounting for 8.9 per cent of all marriages. Vietnamese wives made up the largest share at 25.3 per cent of multicultural marriages, followed by Chinese wives at 15.1 per cent and Thai wives at 9.2 per cent.

The average age at first marriage stood at 37.1 years for husbands and 29.7 years for wives in multicultural unions. Notably, in 36.1 per cent of all such marriages, the husband was at least 10 years older than his wife. Divorces among multicultural couples rose 1.4 per cent year-on-year to 8,104 in 2025, while births to multicultural families fell 0.5 per cent to 13,347.

What Comes Next

South Korea's demographic trajectory remains one of the most severe among developed economies, with the government having announced successive pro-natalist policy packages that have so far failed to reverse the structural decline. How the education system restructures — through school consolidation, digital learning, or migrant enrolment — will define the country's social fabric for the next generation.