US President Donald Trump on 12 June predicted a sharp decline in global oil prices, saying an emerging agreement with Iran — once finalised — would stabilise the Middle East and reopen critical maritime shipping routes, easing pressure on energy markets worldwide. Speaking at the White House, Trump said financial markets had already reacted positively to news of the deal.

What Trump Said

'Stock markets up 1000 points,' Trump said. 'That means they like the deal.' He added that oil prices had already begun moving lower and forecast steeper declines once the agreement is formally signed. 'Oil's dropped,' Trump said. 'Oil will start coming down too, I think even lower than it was before.'

Trump connected falling energy costs to a broader economic ripple effect. 'When oil comes down, everything else comes down,' he said, adding that American farmers and consumers stood to benefit directly. 'Your fuel is going to be lower,' he said, noting that fertiliser costs — a pressure point for the agricultural sector — were also easing.

The Strait of Hormuz Provision

A central element of the proposed arrangement, according to Trump, is the reopening of maritime routes in the Gulf region, specifically the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a substantial share of the world's seaborne oil exports passes daily. 'The Strait will open as soon as we have it signed,' Trump said. Asked whether maritime blockade restrictions would be lifted immediately upon the deal taking effect, he replied: 'Yes that's true it's part of the deal and we'll have oil prices dropping like a rock.'

Trump also said the United States had already been facilitating energy shipments through the region amid ongoing tensions. 'We brought many, many ships across and millions, hundreds of millions of barrels of oil were brought across,' he said.

Nuclear Commitment and Deal Timeline

Trump framed the agreement as a historic non-proliferation milestone. 'We have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,' he said. 'It's a great deal.' He described the document as being in its final stages and said it could be signed within days. 'It's a very detailed memorandum of understanding,' Trump said. 'Everybody wants it done.'

What It Means for India

For India, the stakes are particularly high. The country imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, making international energy prices a decisive factor in domestic inflation, government finances, and household fuel costs. A sustained decline in crude prices, if the deal holds, could provide meaningful relief to the Centre's fiscal position and ease pressure on retail fuel prices. This comes amid a period of elevated global energy uncertainty, and any durable de-escalation in the Gulf would mark a significant shift in the supply outlook.