American voters head to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, to deliver their verdict on President Donald Trump's 21 months in his second term — a tenure marked by tariff-driven economic turbulence and a military conflict in the Hormuz Strait that has pushed up fuel and food prices for ordinary Americans. Polls point to a Democratic Party takeover of the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains too close to call.

Where the Numbers Stand

According to the RealClear Politics (RCP) aggregation of polls, overall Democratic support in Congressional elections stands at 52.1%, a dramatic shift from the 2024 presidential election when Trump won with 49.8% of the vote. Trump's job approval rating has slumped from 50.3% in the first week of his second term to 39.1%, with the disapproval rate rising to 58.8%.

Three independent analyses — from RCP, CBS News, and the Cook Political Report (CPR) — all project a Democratic majority in the 435-member House. Seat projections range from at least 222 (CPR) to 229 (CBS News) and 227 (RCP). Republicans currently control the chamber, making any Democratic gain a direct rebuke of the Trump administration.

The Economic Fault Line

Although the US economy grew by 3.4% in the latest quarter — a figure economists generally consider solid — inflation stood at 3.7% in September, with its sharpest effects felt in food and everyday consumer items. Analysts attribute the price spike to two compounding factors: the sweeping tariffs Trump has imposed on imports, and the surge in petrol and diesel prices triggered by the Hormuz Strait conflict that Trump reportedly initiated alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The midterm election, in this sense, is as much a referendum on household affordability as it is on presidential approval.

Trump's Final Push and His Own Admission

Trump mounted an extraordinary ground campaign in the final stretch, holding 30 rallies across 20 states in 32 days, according to the White House. He cancelled a planned rally in Michigan for a final campaign event at the Washington Reflecting Pool, where he denounced Democrats as 'communists' and 'jihadists and Muslim Brotherhood members' who would, he claimed, undermine his record. Notably, much of the speech focused on capital beautification rather than the economic concerns driving voter discontent.

Appearing to brace for losses, Trump said at his final rally: 'For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot.' The remark was widely read as an acknowledgement of the headwinds his party faces.

Early Voting Signals and Senate Battlegrounds

Of the total electorate of roughly 174 million, 57 million had already cast ballots — either by mail or at early voting centres — by Monday evening. Among early voters registered along party lines, 46% were Democrats and 39% Republicans, according to NBC News tracking. Trump will need a strong Election Day surge to offset that gap.

In the Senate, where Democrats currently hold 47 of 100 seats, the picture is murkier. A New York Times poll published on Sunday showed Democrats leading in six of seven key races that could determine the majority. However, last-minute controversies have complicated the path.

In Michigan, Haley Stevens — who narrowly lost the Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed — stunned the party by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers, citing her exclusion from a party conciliation meeting and an ad by a pro-Democrat group that she found objectionable. The Michigan seat is currently held by Democrats.

In Alaska, the Democratic Party stands accused of placing an independent candidate sharing the name of Republican Dan Stevens — distinguished only by a middle initial — on the ballot, allegedly to confuse voters. A federal judge dismissed a Trump administration bid to block the election if the Republican lost, though further legal challenges are anticipated.

In Maine, Democrats scrambled to field a replacement candidate after their original nominee withdrew amid sexual misconduct allegations, leaving them to contest against veteran Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term after 30 years in the chamber. Both Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, adding another layer of uncertainty to final outcomes.

What Comes Next

Results from Tuesday's balloting are expected to trickle in through the evening and into Wednesday, with close Senate races potentially remaining unresolved for days given ranked-choice counting rules in Alaska and Maine. A Democratic House majority would fundamentally alter Trump's legislative agenda for the remainder of his second term, while a split Congress — Democratic House, Republican Senate — would likely produce the same gridlock that defined the final two years of his first term.