US President Donald Trump's job approval rating has dropped to 42 per cent among registered voters — the lowest point of his second term — as persistent inflation and rising fuel costs erode public confidence, according to a new NBC News poll released on Sunday, 15 June. The survey also shows Democrats holding a five-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

What the Poll Found

Trump's approval stands at 42 per cent, down from 44 per cent earlier this spring, marking a steady erosion since the start of his second term. The generic Congressional ballot — an early barometer of midterm sentiment — shows Democrats ahead by five points, a meaningful edge at this stage of the cycle.

Notably, the poll also captured a broader mood of national pessimism. Nearly six in ten respondents said America's best days are behind it. National pride has also declined sharply: just 56 per cent of respondents described themselves as 'extremely proud' or 'very proud' to be American, compared with roughly three-quarters at the turn of the century.

Inflation at the Centre of Voter Anxiety

Inflation — accelerated by conflict involving Iran and disruptions to global energy supplies — has re-emerged as the dominant economic concern. Rising fuel costs linked to Middle East instability have hit household budgets, and the White House is struggling to contain the political fallout.

Speaking on NBC's Meet the Press, Trump sought to reassure voters that prices would ease once the conflict subsides. 'Our numbers were great. You know what I really love? I love the inflation,' Trump said. 'When the war's over, it's coming down. It's going to come down like a rock.' The remarks drew attention for their unusual framing, and the latest polling suggests many voters remain unconvinced.

Democrats Press the Cost-of-Living Case

Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries used his own appearance on NBC to sharpen the opposition's economic argument. 'America's far too expensive. The cost of living is way too high,' Jeffries said. 'There are far too many people who are working hard. They're playing by the rules. But they can't thrive and can barely survive.'

Republicans, however, argue that voters retain painful memories of the inflation and immigration pressures of the Biden administration, and believe those issues continue to benefit them heading into the midterms.

Deep Partisan Divides on Institutions

NBC chief data analyst Steve Kornacki noted that the survey revealed deep public pessimism even amid continued pride in the country's history and institutions. The results showed stark partisan splits: Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to express confidence in institutions such as the military, while Democrats showed greater trust in colleges and universities. Widespread scepticism toward Congress, the federal government, the news media, and the Supreme Court cut across party lines.

What the Midterms Could Mean

The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of Congress and are widely expected to serve as the first major nationwide referendum on Trump's second-term agenda. Historically, the party holding the White House faces significant headwinds in midterm contests, making economic conditions and voter confidence the defining variables over the next several months. With inflation showing no immediate sign of cooling, the political pressure on the administration is likely to intensify.