As Uttar Pradesh prepares for its Assembly election early next year, a simmering dispute between the Indian National Congress (Congress) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) over seat-sharing is drawing comparisons to the fault lines that fractured Bihar's Mahagathbandhan during the 2025 state poll. In both instances, Congress sought a larger stake while the dominant regional partner resisted conceding ground.

The UP Seat-Sharing Standoff

The Congress-SP alliance delivered a strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, giving the INDIA bloc a meaningful boost in Uttar Pradesh and significantly denting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s dominance in the state. Reportedly emboldened by that result, Congress leaders have been pushing for an early seat-sharing deal — one that would give them what is described internally as a 'respectable' allocation.

According to reports, Congress is seeking more than 150 seats in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, a figure that would also need to accommodate other alliance partners. The SP, however, is believed to be comfortable with allocating only around 80 seats to Congress. The gap between those two positions has already spilled into the open, with leaders from both sides reportedly exchanging barbs over each other's organisational strength and electoral contributions.

Despite the public sparring, leaders on both sides have acknowledged that the final decision rests with the 'Central leadership' — widely understood to mean Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.

The Bihar Blueprint: A Cautionary Parallel

The dynamics unfolding in UP bear a striking resemblance to what played out in Bihar ahead of the 2025 Assembly election. Congress entered those negotiations with a sense of momentum, buoyed by Rahul Gandhi's intensified political outreach, and sought to translate renewed visibility into bargaining leverage within the Mahagathbandhan.

But Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav held firm. Congress pressed for around 70 seats — matching its 2020 tally — but Tejashwi reportedly insisted that electoral performance, not aspiration, should determine allocations. The RJD pointed to Congress' dismal 2020 strike rate, when it won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested, to justify curtailing its ambitions. At one point, Tejashwi declared the RJD was prepared to contest all 243 Assembly seats alone — a move widely read as pressure tactics.

Congress ultimately settled for 61 seats. In the final result, it won just six seats — 13 fewer than in 2020 — as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept Bihar, breaking into constituencies that the Opposition had long considered safe ground.

Smaller Partners Left Out in the Cold

Bihar also demonstrated the cost of sidelining smaller allies while senior partners fought over numbers. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), a key ally of Congress and RJD in neighbouring Jharkhand, spent months seeking meaningful accommodation within Bihar's Mahagathbandhan. JMM leaders alleged that assurances were not honoured and publicly accused the alliance leadership of marginalisation.

Tensions escalated to the point where JMM threatened to contest independently. The fallout was concrete: the Opposition alliance won only one of the two Scheduled Tribe-reserved seats in Bihar and lost the other. Of the four other seats JMM had intended to contest, the RJD won one while the remaining went to NDA constituents.

Separately, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) repeatedly sought entry into the Mahagathbandhan — writing to the RJD leadership and publicly offering to contest a limited number of seats. According to AIMIM leaders, those overtures were ignored despite direct approaches to Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav. AIMIM ultimately formed a separate alliance and contested 28 of the 79 seats fielded by that third front, winning five — replicating its 2020 performance.

Notably, the NDA secured around 16 of Bihar's approximately 32 Muslim-dominated seats — constituencies concentrated in the Seemanchal region along the Nepal border — which recorded increased turnout in 2025, a development analysts attributed partly to the fragmented Opposition vote.

What the UP Alliance Must Resolve

Whether Congress and SP can navigate their differences more deftly than the Bihar alliance managed may prove decisive — not just for their performance in Uttar Pradesh, India's most politically consequential state, but for the broader viability of the INDIA bloc's electoral strategy. The Bihar precedent suggests that unresolved tensions at the top tend to cascade into weakened coordination on the ground, gift-wrap seats for the BJP, and leave smaller partners feeling alienated enough to act as spoilers.

All eyes now turn to whether Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav can reach a formula before the disagreement hardens into a structural fracture.