Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), the global Islamist organisation, has sharply escalated its focus on South India, with Indian intelligence agencies tracking a surge in the outfit's digital activity, encrypted communications among cadres, and an expanding foreign funding trail — including from Germany and Switzerland, according to officials familiar with the probe.

ISI Backing and the South India Strategy

An Intelligence Bureau (IB) official said the revival of HuT is considered critical to the Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)'s South India operations. According to the official, the ISI has been actively overseeing HuT's activities in the region and facilitating the inflow of funds from multiple countries. Investigators are working with foreign counterparts, including in Germany and Switzerland, to trace the financial channels being used to sustain the outfit.

The official noted that HuT had remained largely dormant for several years before a sudden spike in online activity triggered fresh concern among Indian agencies. The outfit is currently assessed to be in the first stage of a three-phase operational plan — focused entirely on radicalisation and recruitment, with no immediate ground operations planned.

Exploiting the PFI Vacuum

Officials say HuT is actively leveraging the networks and resources of the Popular Front of India (PFI), which was banned in September 2022. The outfit has reportedly been reaching out to former PFI cadres who went underground following the ban. According to officials, the PFI ban created a significant operational vacuum in South India, and multiple groups are now competing to fill it — with HuT emerging as one of the primary contenders.

The primary target states at present are Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Once a sufficient base of radicalised recruits is established there, the plan is to expand operations to other southern states.

The Three-Stage Blueprint

The National Investigation Agency (NIA), which has been probing HuT-linked cases, found that cadres were instructed to operate in three stages. The first stage centres on recruitment and radicalisation. The second involves pushing for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate. The third stage would entail the creation of Muslim armies, seeking foreign assistance, and carrying out attacks.

Officials stress that HuT is currently playing a long game — deliberately maintaining a low profile to avoid the attention of Indian agencies while steadily expanding its footprint through a select number of outfits.

Proxy Outfits and a Shift Away from Conventional Terror

Once radicalisation programmes are sufficiently advanced, HuT reportedly plans to establish multiple proxy organisations. These proxies would be tasked with staging protests and inciting communal violence. Analysts and security experts note that this marks a shift in tactics — away from conventional attacks involving shootings and bombings, toward a longer-term strategy of deepening communal rifts and destabilising public discourse.

The outfit's ideological agenda includes propagating the implementation of Sharia law and reshaping public opinion through sustained outreach during its radicalisation programmes, where recruits are instructed on radical interpretations of Islam and their perceived duty to spread the message across states.

The 2014 Chennai Arrests: Early Warning Signs

HuT's South India ambitions were first flagged publicly when the Chennai Crime Branch arrested five operatives of the outfit in May 2014. The arrested individuals were identified as Nawaz Sharif, Hameed Hussain, Mohammad Maurice, Ahmed Mansoor, and Abdul Rahman. Investigations revealed that the module had been holding secret weekly classes in Chennai every Sunday, where members preached radical Islam and discussed the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate in South India.

With HuT now reportedly deepening its outreach and funding infrastructure more than a decade after those first arrests, security agencies are watching the organisation's next moves closely.