India's aviation sector posted a significant recovery in international passenger traffic in May 2025, with volumes rising 24 per cent month-on-month to approximately 2.3 million passengers, according to a report by Equirus Securities. The uptick was driven primarily by easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which had disrupted flight operations in preceding months, alongside sustained strength in domestic travel demand.

International Traffic: Key Numbers

Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) on international routes climbed to around 8 billion, up 12 per cent sequentially. Flight departures improved to approximately 14,200, a 22 per cent month-on-month rise, while available seat kilometres (ASKs) grew 10 per cent to around 10.5 billion.

Notably, passenger demand outpaced capacity recovery, pushing the passenger load factor to 76.6 per cent — a signal that normalisation of international operations is gaining momentum rather than being driven purely by added seats.

Fuel Relief, But Rupee Remains a Drag

Global aviation fuel prices provided meaningful relief on a sequential basis. Brent crude averaged around $72.9 per barrel in May, declining 21 per cent month-on-month, even as it remained 8 per cent higher year-on-year. The lower fuel bill offers a partial cushion for airline margins.

However, the Indian rupee continued to weigh on balance sheets, holding at approximately ₹94.7 against the US dollar — 10 per cent weaker year-on-year. Dollar-denominated costs including aircraft leases, maintenance, and spare parts remain elevated, limiting the full benefit of cheaper fuel.

Domestic Aviation Holds Firm

On the home front, domestic passenger traffic reached around 15.4 million in May, growing 10 per cent year-on-year and 11 per cent month-on-month. Domestic RPKs mirrored that pace, rising 11 per cent on both an annual and sequential basis to approximately 15.3 billion.

Capacity additions kept pace with demand: domestic ASKs rose to around 17.8 billion, up 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent month-on-month, while flight departures touched approximately 103,500, increasing 5 per cent annually and 6 per cent sequentially, according to the Equirus Securities report.

Outlook: Recovery Path and Remaining Risks

The sequential improvement across load factors, RPKs, and flight departures suggests Indian carriers are rebuilding international network density after a period of geopolitical disruption. This comes amid broader global aviation recovery, with Asia-Pacific routes among the last to fully normalise post the West Asia tensions flare-up.

The key variables to watch remain the trajectory of the rupee and any renewed instability in West Asian airspace, either of which could reverse the cost and capacity gains seen in May. Industry observers will look to June data to confirm whether the recovery is sustained or seasonal.