Kolkata, Dec 31 (NationPress) A political alliance rooted in religious beliefs, as suggested by former Trinamool Congress MLA and the creator of a Babri Masjid replica in West Bengal, Humayun Kabir, could significantly impact the ruling party's fortunes in Muslim-majority Assembly seats next year, reflecting the situation seen in Bihar's Seemanchal.

Kabir's bold call for the unification of Muslim votes may lead to a polarization that could inadvertently benefit the principal Opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially in light of accusations of “appeasement politics” leveled against Trinamool chief and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

The recent Assembly elections in Bihar saw Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) win five seats and narrowly miss out on two, after running 25 candidates.

Owaisi's party, having reportedly been rejected by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, chose to operate independently in Bihar, focusing its energies in Seemanchal, where Muslims form a significant portion of the electorate.

This strategy paid off for AIMIM, as it mirrored its 2020 success, when it captured an equal number of seats. Notably, AIMIM managed a recovery from previous setbacks linked to defections among its winners.

In the Muslim-dominated constituencies of Seemanchal, only the Congress secured a win in Kishanganj, while neither the RJD nor the Left could penetrate the region's political landscape due to vote consolidation.

In Balrampur, AIMIM fell short by just 389 votes against the BJP ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), with the Mahagathbandhan's CPI(ML)L amassing 79,141 votes.

In the Thakurganj constituency, AIMIM trailed the Janata Dal (United) by 8,822 votes, while the RJD garnered 60,036 votes. In Pranpur, the RJD candidate fell behind the BJP by a margin of 7,752 votes, with AIMIM polling 30,163 votes, indicating a clear divergence in voting patterns.

Consequently, AIMIM's rise fragmented minority votes, which hindered the Mahagathbandhan's ability to convert Muslim plurality into a unified front against the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The Seemanchal experience suggests that if Kabir's Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), AIMIM, and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) collaborate, they could achieve local consolidation, negatively impacting the electoral prospects of their opponents.

The ISF, established by Peerzada Abbas Siddiqui of the Furfura Sharif Sufi shrine ahead of the 2021 Assembly elections, aims to ensure “social justice” for Muslims and Dalits in the state.

In the last Assembly elections, the ISF allied with the Left and Congress, winning one seat, while its partners failed to secure any. The future of these parties hinges on coordinating to field a single candidate per seat to consolidate Muslim votes.

Kabir has indicated on multiple occasions that he sees himself as a potential kingmaker, with aspirations to nominate JUP candidates in at least 180 seats. He appears to be taking AIMIM's performance in Bihar into account, though he is yet to organize his party effectively and establish a formal alliance.

Given the lessons from Seemanchal, a formal agreement among JUP, AIMIM, and ISF could alter the electoral calculus; however, there remains uncertainty regarding the potential for uneven splits in minority votes or the appeal of leaders from rival parties during the elections.

Nonetheless, the favorable conditions have led the BJP to suggest that Kabir may support Trinamool post-election, even as Mamata Banerjee seeks to court Hindu voters through a notable increase in temple constructions across the state.