Tamil Nadu exit poll: DMK 108–118, AIADMK 102–112, TVK wins 16–26 seats
Synopsis
Neither the DMK nor the AIADMK has a clear majority in sight, according to the CPDS exit poll of 46,000 voters — and actor Vijay's TVK, projected at 16–26 seats on debut, could end up deciding who governs Tamil Nadu. The youth vote has fractured three ways, rewriting the state's binary Dravidian script.
Key Takeaways
The CPDS exit poll surveyed 46,000 voters across all 234 Tamil Nadu Assembly constituencies .
The DMK -led Secular Progressive Alliance is projected to win 108–118 seats , around the majority mark of 118 .
The AIADMK -led alliance, including BJP , is projected at 102–112 seats .
Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is projected to win 16–26 seats with a 16–18 per cent vote share on its electoral debut.
The youth vote has split three ways, disrupting traditional Dravidian voting patterns.
The Kongu belt is witnessing a triangular contest; DMK leads in Chennai and north, AIADMK stronger in west and south.
The Centre for Policy and Development Studies (CPDS) exit poll for the Tamil Nadu Assembly election projects a razor-thin contest between the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Secular Progressive Alliance and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led bloc, while actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerges as a potentially decisive third force. Based on responses from 46,000 voters across all 234 constituencies, the survey, released on 29 April, indicates that neither Dravidian major holds a commanding lead heading into counting day.
Seat Projections at a Glance
According to the CPDS survey, the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 108–118 seats — placing it marginally ahead but hovering precariously around the majority mark of 118. The AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its partners, is projected to win 102–112 seats, keeping it firmly within striking distance of power. Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is projected to bag 16–26 seats — a striking debut for a party that did not exist at the last election cycle.
Vote Share and the TVK Factor
In terms of vote share, the DMK alliance is estimated at 37–38 per cent, closely trailed by the AIADMK alliance at 35–36 per cent. TVK is projected to garner 16–18 per cent of the vote — a figure that, if borne out, would represent a remarkable first-election performance for a political newcomer. The remaining votes are expected to be distributed among smaller parties and independents.
Youth Vote Disrupts Traditional Patterns
A key driver behind TVK's surge, according to the CPDS survey, is the fragmentation of the youth vote. First-time and young voters reportedly turned out in large numbers and distributed their support almost evenly across all three major formations. This three-way split has disrupted the binary Dravidian voting pattern that has historically defined Tamil Nadu elections, injecting a level of unpredictability that neither the DMK nor the AIADMK had fully anticipated.
Regional Battlegrounds
Regionally, the contest remains tight across key electoral belts. The DMK alliance retains a reported edge in Chennai and the northern districts, while the AIADMK alliance is performing strongly in western and southern regions. The Kongu belt, in particular, is witnessing a highly competitive triangular fight, with all three formations in contention — making it one of the most closely watched sub-regional contests of this election.
Kingmaker Calculus
Though TVK is not in contention for power on its own, the party's projected tally could prove decisive in a hung or near-hung Assembly. If the final count falls short of a clear majority for either major alliance, TVK's seat count would give it significant leverage in government formation. Notably, this is the first Tamil Nadu election in recent history where a third force commands a projected double-digit seat count with a substantial vote share. The CPDS exit poll underscores that Tamil Nadu is heading for one of its closest electoral verdicts in recent memory, where even marginal swings in a handful of constituencies could alter the final outcome.
Point of View
If they hold, signal something structurally new in Tamil Nadu politics: the Dravidian duopoly is no longer a guaranteed binary. TVK's 16–18 per cent vote share on debut is not just a protest vote — it is a generational signal. The real question is not whether TVK plays kingmaker this cycle, but whether it consolidates enough to become a permanent third pole. For the DMK, governing on 108 seats would be a far weaker mandate than 2021; for the AIADMK, 112 seats without a clear path to 118 would mean another term in opposition unless post-poll arithmetic works in its favour. Either way, Tamil Nadu's next government may be more fragile than its last.
NationPress
2 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CPDS exit poll predict for Tamil Nadu?
The Centre for Policy and Development Studies exit poll projects the DMK-led alliance at 108–118 seats and the AIADMK-led alliance at 102–112 seats, with neither side commanding a clear majority. Actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is projected to win 16–26 seats, potentially playing a kingmaker role.
How many voters were surveyed in the CPDS Tamil Nadu exit poll?
The CPDS surveyed 46,000 voters across all 234 Tamil Nadu Assembly constituencies. The poll was released on 29 April and covers all major regional belts including Chennai, the Kongu belt, and southern districts.
What is Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam and why does it matter in this election?
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is a political party founded by Tamil film actor Vijay. It is contesting its first Tamil Nadu Assembly election and is projected to win 16–26 seats with 16–18 per cent of the vote, making it a potential kingmaker if neither major alliance secures a clear majority.
Which regions are the DMK and AIADMK alliances performing strongly in?
According to the CPDS exit poll, the DMK alliance leads in Chennai and the northern districts, while the AIADMK alliance is stronger in western and southern Tamil Nadu. The Kongu belt is witnessing a tight three-way fight involving all major formations.
Why has the youth vote become a key factor in Tamil Nadu's 2025 election?
The CPDS survey found that young and first-time voters turned out in large numbers and split their support almost evenly between the DMK alliance, AIADMK alliance, and TVK. This three-way fragmentation has disrupted the traditional binary Dravidian voting pattern and added significant unpredictability to the result.
