Tamil Nadu 2026 exit polls: DMK alliance projected 125–145 seats, Stalin set for second term
Synopsis
Every major exit poll released on 29 April points the same way: the DMK alliance is headed back to power in Tamil Nadu with a comfortable majority, while C. Joseph Vijay's TVK threatens to upend the state's traditional two-alliance dynamic with a potentially historic debut. Counting on 4 May will confirm whether the projections hold.
Key Takeaways
DMK -led alliance projected to win 125–145 seats across multiple exit polls, well above the 118-seat majority mark in the 234-member Assembly .
Stalin is on course for a second consecutive term if projections hold.
AIADMK -led alliance forecast at 65–110 seats depending on the survey, trailing significantly.
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) , led by actor C.
Joseph Vijay , projected to debut with 10–26 seats , reshaping the state's political landscape.
Voter turnout stood at 85.10 per cent in the single-phase poll held on 23 April 2026 .
Final vote count is scheduled for 4 May 2026 .
Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, released on Wednesday, 29 April, project a decisive advantage for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, indicating that Chief Minister M.K. Stalin is on course to secure a second consecutive term. Multiple surveys place the DMK alliance well above the majority mark of 118 seats in the 234-member Assembly.
Key Exit Poll Projections
The People's Pulse exit poll projects the DMK+ alliance winning between 125 and 145 seats, comfortably clearing the majority threshold. The AIADMK-led alliance is forecast to secure 65 to 80 seats, while actor C. Joseph Vijay's newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is projected to make a notable debut with 18 to 24 seats. Other parties are expected to win between two and six constituencies.
Axis My India mirrors those numbers, projecting the DMK alliance at 125–145 seats and the AIADMK alliance at 65–80 seats, with TVK at 18–24 seats. The Matrix poll is comparatively more conservative for the DMK, estimating a tally of 122–132 seats, while placing the AIADMK alliance higher at 87–110 seats and TVK at 10–12 seats. The P-Marq survey projects the DMK alliance at 125–145 seats, the AIADMK alliance at 65–85 seats, and TVK at 16–26 seats, with smaller parties and independents taking one to six seats.
Voter Turnout and Contest Overview
The 234-seat Assembly went to polls in a single phase on 23 April 2026, recording a voter turnout of 85.10 per cent — a figure that reflects strong public engagement. The election was largely seen as a four-cornered contest between the DMK-led front, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance, TVK, and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK). The high turnout is notable, given that Tamil Nadu's previous assembly election in 2021 also saw elevated participation.
TVK's Entry Reshapes the Landscape
The emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, floated by popular actor C. Joseph Vijay, has introduced a new variable into Tamil Nadu's traditionally bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK. Exit polls suggest TVK has drawn votes across traditional party lines, potentially eating into the AIADMK's base in several constituencies. If projections hold, TVK's debut tally of up to 26 seats would represent one of the more significant first-election performances by a new party in the state's recent history.
What the Numbers Mean for the AIADMK
For the AIADMK, which lost power to the DMK in 2021, the projected seat share — ranging from 65 to 110 across surveys — signals continued difficulty in reclaiming its traditional vote base. The party has been navigating internal challenges since its split with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of the elections. A below-expectation result could intensify leadership questions within the party.
What Happens Next
Vote counting is scheduled for 4 May 2026, when the final outcome will determine whether exit poll projections hold. Should the DMK alliance cross the majority mark, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin would be sworn in for a second consecutive term — a milestone that would consolidate the party's dominance in Tamil Nadu's political cycle. All major surveys are aligned in their directional call, though seat-by-seat margins could shift the final tally.
Point of View
Which reduces the statistical uncertainty typically attached to such projections. The more consequential story, however, is TVK's projected debut: a new party drawing double-digit seats in its first election would mark a structural shift in Tamil Nadu's bipolar contest, not a blip. For the AIADMK, a third successive setback — compounded by its break from the BJP — risks triggering a deeper identity crisis. The real question on 4 May is not whether the DMK wins, but by how much TVK eats into the opposition's floor.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the 2026 Tamil Nadu exit polls predict?
All major exit polls released on 29 April 2026 project the DMK-led alliance winning between 125 and 145 seats in the 234-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 118. The AIADMK alliance is projected to trail with 65–110 seats depending on the survey.
Is M.K. Stalin likely to become Chief Minister again?
Yes, according to exit poll projections. If the DMK alliance secures a majority as forecast, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin would be sworn in for a second consecutive term after vote counting on 4 May 2026.
How many seats is TVK projected to win in its debut?
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the party floated by actor C. Joseph Vijay, is projected to win between 10 and 26 seats across different surveys — a significant debut for a first-time entrant in Tamil Nadu's assembly elections.
When will the Tamil Nadu 2026 election results be declared?
Vote counting is scheduled for 4 May 2026. The Tamil Nadu Assembly went to polls in a single phase on 23 April 2026, recording a voter turnout of 85.10 per cent.
How does the AIADMK alliance compare to the DMK in exit poll projections?
The AIADMK-led alliance is projected to win 65–110 seats across surveys, significantly behind the DMK alliance's projected 122–145 seats. The AIADMK has been out of power since 2021 and faces additional headwinds following its split with the BJP ahead of these elections.
