Trinamool Congress faces split threat: 50 MLAs unhappy, Shiv Sena parallel grows
Synopsis
Fifty Trinamool MLAs are reportedly unhappy with Mamata Banerjee's leadership after the party's May poll losses — just three short of the 53 needed for a legally protected split. The Shiv Sena and NCP precedents show that the Election Commission, not founding legacy, decides who keeps the party symbol. West Bengal's political arithmetic has rarely been this precarious for Banerjee.
Key Takeaways
All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) is facing serious internal dissent following its poll losses to BJP in early May 2025 .
Around 50 MLAs are reportedly aggrieved — just 3 short of the 53-legislator threshold required for a legally protected split under the anti-defection law.
TMC's assembly strength has already fallen to 78 MLAs after the expulsion of 2 members over alleged fraudulent signatures.
The Election Commission of India recognised the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of NCP as official parties in 2022–2023 , setting a direct precedent.
The BJP in West Bengal has ruled out absorbing TMC defectors, complicating any exit strategy for disgruntled legislators.
Party meetings have seen low attendance, with at least one session reportedly cancelled for lack of quorum.
The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal is confronting what political observers are calling its 'Shiv Sena moment' — a deepening internal crisis triggered by the party's significant electoral losses to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in early May 2025. Reports of organised dissent, low-attendance party meetings, and alleged 'secret gatherings' of disgruntled legislators have pushed speculation of a formal party split from whisper to mainstream political discourse.
The Numbers That Matter
Under India's Tenth Schedule — the anti-defection law — a split is legally protected only if at least two-thirds of a party's legislative strength breaks away together. For the Trinamool, whose assembly strength has already slipped to 78 MLAs following the expulsion of two members, that threshold stands at approximately 53 legislators. Reports indicate that around 50 MLAs are currently aggrieved with the party leadership — just three short of the number required to execute a legally insulated split.
The two expelled MLAs had reportedly exposed alleged fraudulent signatures on a party resolution nominating names for the posts of Leader of Opposition, two Deputy Leaders of the Opposition, and the party's Chief Whip in the West Bengal Assembly. Their removal has further strained relations within the rank and file.
The Shiv Sena and NCP Precedent
The comparison to Maharashtra's political upheavals of 2022–2023 is not incidental. In both the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) cases, breakaway factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar respectively were recognised by the Election Commission of India (ECI) as the 'original' parties — along with their election symbols — because they commanded a legislative majority, not because they held the party's founding legacy.
Under the Election Symbols Order, 1968, the ECI determines which faction of a split party inherits the official symbol. The Commission weighs legislative numbers as well as control over the party's organisational structure — office bearers, committees, and state units. Where no clear majority exists, the symbol may be frozen and new ones assigned to each faction pending resolution. This institutional mechanism is now directly relevant to the Trinamool's situation.
Historical Parallel: The Congress Split of 1969
India's political history offers another instructive case. In 1969, the Indian National Congress split after the expulsion of Indira Gandhi, giving rise to Congress (Organisation). Gandhi's faction — Congress (I) — ultimately prevailed not through organisational control but through decisive electoral victories, demonstrating that mass appeal and charismatic leadership can override structural disadvantage. Supporters of Mamata Banerjee, the 71-year-old founder of the Trinamool Congress, point to this precedent as reason not to write off her political resilience.
BJP Rules Out Absorbing Defectors
A key variable in any potential split scenario is where defecting TMC legislators would go. The BJP in West Bengal has, as of now, ruled out welcoming turncoats from the Trinamool. This means any MLA choosing to leave would need to build or join a parallel political platform rather than fold into the ruling party's structure — a considerably higher-risk proposition that could deter fence-sitters.
What Comes Next for Mamata Banerjee
Party meetings have reportedly seen unusually low attendance, with at least one session cancelled for want of a quorum. Accounts of legislators meeting outside official channels have added to the atmosphere of institutional erosion. Notably, the dissatisfaction appears rooted in post-poll recriminations rather than ideological divergence — a pattern that historically proves harder to manage than policy disagreements.
Whether the Trinamool's internal crisis crystallises into a formal split will depend on whether the number of aggrieved MLAs crosses the critical 53-legislator threshold and whether an alternative leadership structure emerges. For now, Banerjee retains the founder's advantage — but the institutional clock, as Maharashtra showed, does not wait for political sentiment to catch up.
Point of View
Not just organisational voices, and legislators are exactly what the Election Commission counts. Mamata Banerjee's founding authority means little if the ECI applies the same legislative-majority test it used for Shinde and Ajit Pawar. The BJP's decision to keep its doors closed to defectors is the one variable that buys Banerjee time — without a clear destination, wavering MLAs are less likely to jump. But that door can open quickly if the political calculus shifts. The deeper problem is that post-electoral recriminations, unlike ideological splits, tend to fester and compound rather than resolve through dialogue.
NationPress
23 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 'Shiv Sena moment' being talked about for Trinamool Congress?
It refers to the risk of a Shiv Sena-style party split, where a breakaway legislative faction is recognised by the Election Commission as the 'real' party. In 2022–2023, the ECI recognised the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of NCP as the official entities because they held a legislative majority. A similar outcome is now being discussed for the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.
How many TMC MLAs need to defect for a legally protected split?
At least two-thirds of the Trinamool's current assembly strength of 78 MLAs must defect together — approximately 53 legislators — to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law. Reports indicate around 50 MLAs are currently unhappy, placing the party just three members short of that threshold.
Why were two Trinamool MLAs expelled?
Two TMC MLAs were expelled after they reportedly exposed alleged fraudulent signatures on a party resolution nominating names for key positions — Leader of Opposition, two Deputy Leaders of the Opposition, and the party's Chief Whip in the West Bengal Assembly. Their expulsion reduced TMC's legislative count from 80 to 78.
What role does the Election Commission play in a party split?
Under the Election Symbols Order, 1968, the Election Commission of India decides which faction of a split party is recognised as the original and retains the official election symbol. The Commission examines which faction commands a majority of legislators and controls the party's organisational structure. If no clear majority exists, the symbol may be frozen and new ones assigned to each faction.
Has the BJP said it will accept TMC defectors?
No. The BJP in West Bengal has, as of now, ruled out welcoming defectors from the Trinamool Congress. This means any MLA leaving the party would need to form or join an alternative political platform rather than being absorbed into the BJP, which significantly raises the risk for potential defectors.
