Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and West Bengal cabinet minister Tapas Roy on Tuesday, 2 June posted a pointed message on social media suggesting the ‘inevitable disintegration’ of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), as the opposition party reels from internal revolt following the expulsion of two of its legislators. The post, published at around 1.20 pm, has sharpened speculation about a potential split in the TMC’s legislative group in the state Assembly.

What Roy Said

In his post, Roy drew a direct parallel with the Maharashtra political crisis of 2022, when then-rebel leader Eknath Shinde used a supermajority of Shiv Sena MLAs to claim the legitimate faction of the party, effectively sidelining the original leadership. “Trinamool Congress is in shambles. The situation is similar to Maharashtra, where Trinamool has approached the Assembly Speaker with about 50 Trinamool Congress MLAs to play the game,” Roy’s post read.

The Numbers Game and Anti-Defection Shield

TMC currently holds 80 seats in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Under India’s anti-defection law, a split is only recognised — and legislators protected from disqualification — if at least two-thirds of a party’s legislative group breaks away. With 80 MLAs, that threshold is approximately 54. Roy’s reference to 50 MLAs approaching the Assembly Speaker, Rathindra Bose, falls close to that critical number, though it is worth noting that 50 out of 80 represents a majority of the legislative party rather than the precise two-thirds required for anti-defection protection.

Notably, if the rebel group — reportedly rallying around expelled legislator Ritabrata Banerjee — successfully presents itself to the Speaker as the majority secular faction within TMC’s legislative team, the rump loyal to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and party general secretary Abhishek Banerjee would be reduced to a minority. In that scenario, the Banerjee-led faction could, according to Roy’s reading, lose control over the party’s official symbol.

Cracks Already Visible

The internal fault lines were on open display on 31 May, when 60 of 80 TMC legislators failed to attend a meeting convened at Mamata Banerjee’s Kalighat residence in South Kolkata. The meeting was subsequently called off, underscoring the depth of the discontent within the legislative group. The immediate trigger for the unrest was the expulsion of legislators Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha from the party.

Mamata on the Streets, Party in Uncertainty

Mamata Banerjee has since taken to street-level activism — reportedly for the first time since her party’s landslide defeat in the recently concluded West Bengal Assembly elections — in what observers read as an attempt to reassert political relevance. However, the absence of visible solidarity from within the TMC legislative group has cast doubt over whether her grassroots outreach will translate into intra-party consolidation. The coming days are expected to be critical for the future of the TMC’s legislative presence in the Assembly.