New Delhi, January 8 (NationPress) The electoral landscape in West Bengal has predominantly featured a direct rivalry between two major political factions during elections, be it Parliamentary or Assembly. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, despite the presence of a self-assured Congress and Left parties, along with the emergence of regional leaders.

While a third entity has always existed in the political sphere, the battle for authority has mostly remained between two parties.

Historically, the Trinamool Congress succeeded its predecessor, the Congress, in challenging the dominance of the Left Front, ultimately dismantling their stronghold.

Recently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has risen to become the primary opposition in the state, surpassing both the Congress and the Communists.

The BJP's origins as the Bharatiya Jana Sangh date back to October 1951 in Delhi, founded by Shyama Prasad Mookerjee with connections to West Bengal. Despite Mookerjee being recognized as the voice for Bengali Hindu refugees from former East Pakistan, the Jana Sangh struggled to gain traction in the state.

Even as the BJP transformed into its current form, it could not penetrate the state’s political fabric while Mamata Banerjee was gradually establishing her base after her split from the Congress.

Nonetheless, the BJP did secure two Lok Sabha seats, with many attributing these wins to external factors rather than its own political prowess.

Over the years, Mamata Banerjee successfully realigned the Trinamool with the Congress and triumphed in 2011, creating the first non-Left government in the state in over thirty years. Known for her shrewd political maneuvers, Banerjee later opted for an independent path.

By that time, the Left and the Congress had become marginalized, paving the way for the BJP.

In the 2011 Assembly elections, the BJP failed to secure any seats among the 289 total constituencies, garnering only a paltry 4 percent of the valid votes in the state. However, during the 2016 elections, the BJP established a foothold, winning three out of 291 seats and achieving around 10 percent of the vote share. The 2021 elections marked a significant achievement for the BJP, which won 77 out of 293 constituencies, claiming nearly 40 percent of the total votes.

Notably, the election was a setback for the Trinamool, as its leader, Mamata Banerjee, lost in Nandigram by a narrow margin of less than 2,000 votes to her former colleague, now the Leader of Opposition, Suvendu Adhikari of the BJP.

Interestingly, Adhikari had previously led protests against the Left Front's proposed chemical hub in Nandigram.

These protests were pivotal in the 2011 ousting of the Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee-led Left Front government, alongside opposition to land acquisition for the Tata Nano project in Singur.

Mamata Banerjee later returned to her constituency in Bhabanipur to win a bye-election, securing her position as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term.

Meanwhile, the BJP's significant victory came in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the Narendra Modi-led campaign was virtually unstoppable. The BJP captured 18 out of the 42 seats in West Bengal, an increase of 16 seats from its previous count, achieving over 40.6 percent of the vote compared to 17 percent in 2014. The Trinamool lost 12 of the 34 seats it had won in the previous election.

In 2024, although the BJP leaders expressed optimism, they conceded six seats and saw a 1.5 percent decline in vote share from 2019, while the Trinamool gained seven seats, totaling 29, with just over 46 percent of the votes.

Thus, in West Bengal, even a slight shift of two to three percent can drastically alter the outcome for candidates in several Assembly constituencies, especially where the margins are tight and the turnout is substantial.

Moreover, the political scene is further complicated by the emergence of Humayun Kabir's Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, and the Indian Secular Front, which already holds one seat in the Assembly, all seeking to attract the minority voters that form a significant part of the Trinamool's support base.