China should not attempt to replicate the SpaceX model despite the US company's landmark public offering, a prominent economist has argued. SpaceX raised US$75 billion when it went public on Friday, 13 June 2026, an event that also made its chief executive Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. The milestone has reignited debate over whether China's commercial space sector should pivot toward a more market-driven structure.

Why the SpaceX model does not translate

Shen Yingchun, a professor at Beihang University, told Beijing Daily: "China does not need to and cannot copy SpaceX." She argued that the strength of the US model lies in efficiency — leveraging market forces to drive down costs and compel companies to innovate continuously. That dynamic, she said, is structurally distinct from how China's space industry operates and is designed to operate.

China's scale-first strategy

According to Shen, China's commercial space sector is deliberately prioritising the build-out of satellite networks before shifting focus to cost reduction. "The strength of the Chinese model is scale — using the national will to concentrate resources and systematically address issues such as infrastructure, setting standards and risk sharing, where markets typically fail," she said. This top-down coordination is viewed as a feature, not a limitation, particularly for foundational infrastructure that private capital is unlikely to fund at the required pace.

The infrastructure dividend

Once the foundational layer is in place, Shen said China's space industry would have the opportunity to "make a big leap forward" in applications including the development of smart cities and the low-altitude economy. These sectors — encompassing drone logistics, urban air mobility, and connected urban infrastructure — are among Beijing's highest-priority emerging industries. The satellite backbone, including projects such as the Qianfan constellation, is seen as essential plumbing for that ambition.

The competitive backdrop

SpaceX's Starlink already operates thousands of satellites and has secured spectrum allocations through the International Telecommunication Union, giving it a significant head start in low-Earth orbit. China's state-backed and commercial players, including Beijing Interstellar Human Spaceflight Technology, are racing to close that gap. The SpaceX IPO injects fresh capital into the US ecosystem, raising the competitive stakes further.

What's next

The debate over industrial models is unlikely to be resolved quickly, but the pressure on China's space sector to demonstrate commercial returns will intensify as SpaceX's public-market valuation sets a new benchmark. Analysts and policymakers will be watching whether Beijing's infrastructure-first approach can translate into competitive applications — and at what speed — as the global satellite economy accelerates.