The ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) has warned that an emerging El Nino event could significantly reduce Indian oil sardine availability by 2027, even as stocks remain abundant this year. The alert was sounded at Kochi on 10 July during the National Fish Farmers Day celebrations at the institute.

The El Nino Warning

CMFRI Director Dr Grinson George stated that warming associated with El Nino is expected to intensify between October and December this year, with its effects likely to reach the northern Indian Ocean by April-May 2027. He cautioned that small pelagic fish — particularly oil sardines — are the most vulnerable to marine heat waves and ocean warming.

'Oil sardine stock is abundant this year, but the resource is likely to be affected in 2027 if the projected warming occurs. Small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable to marine heat waves and ocean warming,' Dr George said.

Broader Impact on Marine Ecosystems

The warning extends beyond sardines. According to Dr George, available scientific data points to a high probability of marine heat waves, elevated sea surface temperatures, and increased salinity along the Indian coast during April and May 2027. Sustained ocean warming could also damage fragile coral reef ecosystems, triggering coral bleaching and reducing the abundance of reef-associated species such as red snapper.

He further cautioned that heavy rainfall following prolonged periods of high temperature and salinity could cause rapid fluctuations in salinity levels, disrupting coastal aquaculture and increasing the risk of production losses for fish farmers.

Impact on Fishing Communities and Livelihoods

The anticipated decline in marine fish production, if it materialises, would directly affect the fishing industry and the livelihoods of coastal communities across India. Dr George stressed that continuous monitoring of ocean conditions and adaptive management strategies would be crucial to minimising climate-related damage to marine resources.

This comes amid a broader pattern of ocean warming events disrupting fisheries globally, with the Indian coast increasingly exposed to climate volatility in recent years.

CMFRI's Advisory and Preparedness Measures

CMFRI announced it will begin issuing El Nino advisories to fishermen and fish farmers later this year, enabling them to make informed decisions on fishing and aquaculture practices ahead of the projected impact window. Fish farmers were separately advised to prepare for sudden environmental shifts.

As part of the National Fish Farmers Day programme, CMFRI scientists also conducted technical sessions covering coastal aquaculture, cage fish farming, marine fish seed production, black soldier fly-based organic waste management, feed formulation, and government schemes and subsidies available to fish farmers. Whether the projected El Nino materialises at the forecast intensity will determine how severe the 2027 sardine season turns out to be.