Government shifts GDP release date to June 7, cites data lag concerns
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday announced a revision to the GDP release schedule, moving the provisional estimates (PE) of annual gross domestic product and quarterly estimates for the fourth quarter from the last working day of May to June 7 (or the preceding working day if June 7 falls on a holiday) each year. The shift is designed to improve data quality and align with international best practices.
Why the delay?
The National Statistics Office (NSO) cited a critical constraint: key datasets required for national accounts compilation arrive with a lag of up to two months. Specifically, listed companies have a statutory 60-day window from the financial year-end to file audited Q4 and annual financial results, with many filing closer to the 31 May deadline. Similarly, Central Government Accounts data on revenue expenditure, capital expenditure, taxes, subsidies, and interest payments for March are finalised only after a two-month lag.
Consultation and alignment
The revision followed due consultation with the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS), reflecting efforts to strengthen data robustness. The new schedule aligns with prevailing international standards and represents part of the ministry's broader push toward improving coverage and quality in national accounts.
Immediate impact
Under the revised calendar, the Press Note on Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY 2025-26 and Quarterly Estimates for Q4 (January-March) 2025-26 is now scheduled for 5 June 2026.
Growth outlook amid moderation
The timing shift comes as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has signalled a slowdown ahead. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently estimated India's real GDP growth at 7.6 per cent for FY26 under a revised series, while projecting 6.9 per cent growth for FY27. The Q1 FY27 estimate was revised downward to 6.8 per cent from 6.9 per cent, and Q2 FY27 was lowered to 6.7 per cent from 7 per cent, with geopolitical disruptions and external headwinds cited as emerging risks.