India's fertiliser subsidy bill is set to climb by approximately ₹15,000 crore in the April–June quarter of 2025–26, as the ongoing West Asia crisis drives up import costs and forces the government to reroute procurement away from traditional supply corridors. The projection, cited by a source familiar with the matter, underscores the fiscal pressure building on the Centre even as it works to shield farmers from price shocks.

Government Confirms Rise, Holds Back Figures

Aparna S. Sharma, Additional Secretary in the Department of Fertilisers, confirmed on Monday, 18 May that the subsidy outgo will increase, though she declined to quantify the percentage rise. 'The subsidy bill will go up, but by what percentage is something I cannot say,' she said. Subsidy payments are currently being cleared on a weekly basis through the Integrated Fertiliser Management System to maintain supply chain liquidity.

Kharif Supply Remains Comfortable Despite Disruptions

Despite the cost pressures, Sharma said fertiliser availability for the 2026 kharif season remains stable. Current stocks stand at 200.9 lakh tonne — exceeding 51 per cent of the total seasonal requirement of 390 lakh tonne. This is a sharp improvement over the usual buffer of approximately 33 per cent at this time of year, reflecting improved advance stocking and logistics management. 'Overall, the situation remains strong, stable and comfortable,' Sharma remarked.

Domestic production is running at roughly 80,000 tonnes per day. Output since the onset of the West Asia crisis stands at 86.2 lakh tonne — slightly below the 93 lakh tonne recorded during the same period last year. Sufficient gas supply is available for urea plants, officials confirmed.

Import Rerouting and Global Tenders

India has been sourcing fertiliser imports from regions outside the Strait of Hormuz, with approximately 22 lakh tonne imported through diversified channels so far. To pre-empt shortages during peak demand, Indian fertiliser companies have launched aggregated global tenders for 12 lakh metric tonne (LMT) of DAP, 4 LMT of TSP, and 3 LMT of ammonium sulphate. Tenders for raw materials — including 5.36 LMT of ammonia and 5.94 LMT of sulphur — are also in progress. Around 7 LMT of NPKs secured from outside the Strait of Hormuz are expected to arrive at Indian ports through May and June.

No MRP Hike for Farmers

In a significant relief for the farming community, the government has confirmed there is no change in the Maximum Retail Price (MRP) of major fertilisers. The Centre is absorbing the additional import cost through the subsidy mechanism rather than passing it on to end users. The Empowered Group of Secretaries has held eight meetings so far to navigate availability challenges and ensure uninterrupted supply at affordable rates.

What to Watch

The ₹15,000 crore uptick in the April–June quarter alone raises questions about the full-year fertiliser subsidy budget, which was already elevated following post-pandemic input cost surges. Analysts will watch whether the West Asia situation stabilises before the rabi sowing season later in the year, which could determine whether the subsidy pressure compounds further. The Department of Fertilisers has said it will continue reviewing input availability regularly.