Former West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress founder Mamata Banerjee has decided to stay out of the upcoming West Bengal Assembly by-elections scheduled for 6 October 2026, even as colleagues — both former and current — urged her to contest. The decision renews questions about her immediate political future and her larger national ambitions at a time when her party is fractured and her 15-year uninterrupted rule of West Bengal has ended.

The By-Election Context

By-elections will be held at Rejinagar and Nandigram Assembly constituencies in West Bengal after winners Humayun Kabir and incumbent Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari resigned from their respective seats. Adhikari, once Mamata's close aide and now her bitterest political adversary, has opted to represent Bhabanipur, where he defeated Mamata Banerjee by more than 15,000 votes — a stark reversal from his earlier victory margin of under 10,000 votes over Trinamool's Pabitra Kar.

Kabir, representing the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), had personally extended an invitation to Mamata Banerjee to contest from Rejinagar, claiming he could secure her win. Leaders of the rival Trinamool faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee indicated they would not field a candidate in Nandigram if Mamata chose to contest herself. Despite these overtures, Mamata declined. Kabir had won Rejinagar by a margin of more than 58,000 votes, capturing 51.62 per cent of the vote share. In Naoda, his margin was under 28,000 votes with approximately 39 per cent of mandates.

Notably, both seats fall in Murshidabad district, where Muslims reportedly comprise an estimated 70 per cent of the population. Despite this demographic composition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finished second, pushing the Trinamool to third — a signal of the significant polarisation that defined the last election cycle.

The Fractured Party and the Symbol War

The Trinamool Congress that Mamata once led as an undisputed force now faces an internal civil war. Her faction is locked in a bitter legal and organisational battle with a rival Trinamool group led by Ritabrata Banerjee over the right to retain the original party name and its iconic twin-floret logo — which Mamata reportedly claims to have designed herself.

Meanwhile, allegations of fraud, embezzlement, bribery, extortion, and smuggling have plagued the party, damaging its grassroots credibility. Though Mamata occasionally asserted control — publicly reprimanding members and reconstituting leadership committees — critics within the party, including several turncoats, say she appeared increasingly sidelined as her nephew Abhishek Banerjee effectively assumed control of the organisation. Mamata herself has acknowledged that the demands of running the state government may have come at the cost of party organisation, and has promised to rebuild from the grassroots.

National Ambition and the INDIA Bloc Gambit

Even as her state-level position weakens, Mamata Banerjee has reoriented toward national politics, positioning herself as a central figure in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc — an acronym her supporters credit her with coining. She has simultaneously reached out to long-standing political adversaries, including the Left Front and the Indian National Congress (Congress), the party from which she broke away in 1998.

Some analysts believe her push to strengthen the INDIA bloc is a calculated strategy to build a national Opposition identity, especially as she faces diminished leverage within Bengal. However, the alliance's coherence has frayed — the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal and M.K. Stalin's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) have reportedly ended formal ties with the platform. Some leaders, however, believe Mamata's personal relationships with these figures could bring them back ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Many INDIA bloc constituents who resist a Congress-led formation see in Mamata a viable alternative anchor — one more rooted in regional politics than in projecting a strong pan-India footprint. This contradiction lies at the heart of her current political positioning.

What the By-Poll Results Could Mean

The 6 October by-elections represent a critical barometer for Mamata's faction. A strong performance could validate her ability to rebuild the party and reinforce her claims on the TMC name and symbol before electoral authorities. A poor showing, on the other hand, could accelerate the defection of ground-level workers and weaken her hand in both the symbol dispute and INDIA bloc negotiations.

With the Election Commission's decision on the party symbol still pending and the by-poll results imminent, the next few weeks will likely determine whether Mamata Banerjee reclaims centre stage in Bengal or pivots entirely toward a national Opposition role.