Is Pakistan Cornered Between the Devil and the Deep Sea Amid Iran Turmoil?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, Jan 15 (NationPress) A wave of anxiety has engulfed Pakistan as the situation in Iran rapidly escalates. The ongoing protests in Iran, coupled with threats of regime change by US President Donald Trump, have plunged the Pakistani administration into turmoil.
Multiple emergency meetings are underway, involving key figures such as army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, ISI chief, and National Security Adviser General Asim Malik, alongside Southern Commander Lt General Rahat Naseem. Should a confrontation arise between the US and Iran, it would intensify tensions at the Pakistan-Iran border, already strained due to existing conflicts with the Taliban over the Durand Line.
Officials warn that Pakistan cannot bear any more border stress at this juncture, especially with most of its forces engaged on the India-Pakistan border. The country is currently battling the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA).
Moreover, issues are arising in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). With a shortage of manpower and challenges at every border, Pakistan is reportedly enlisting terror groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Lashkar-e-Tayba to aid in its fight against the TTP and BLA.
Initially, Pakistan believed the US threats towards Iran were mere bluster. It has now become apparent that these threats are serious, raising the specter of conflict between the US and Iran. While border volatility is a pressing concern, there are also questions regarding what the US might demand from Pakistan.
Sources indicate that in the event of a conflict, the US could request military bases in Pakistan for operations against Iran. There is also a possibility that Pakistan's airspace may be utilized. This predicament places Pakistan in a difficult position, as its previous overtures to the US, following Trump's ascension, now seem precarious.
High-level meetings in Pakistan are focused on strategizing responses, while the prospect of granting the US military access against Iran would tarnish Pakistan's image in the region. With many citizens already frustrated over the fight against the Taliban, any indirect support against Iran could further inflame public sentiment and raise questions about Pakistan's role against fellow Muslim nations.
An Intelligence Bureau official expressed that internal unrest is a significant concern if conflict breaks out in Iran. The public may demand a stance against the US, while the government may feel compelled to maintain its newfound ties with the US.
In the event of conflict, an influx of refugees into Pakistan could exacerbate the crisis amidst internal strife. Currently, Pakistan is on high alert, having opened diplomatic channels with Saudi Arabia and Turkey to express concerns over potential conflict in Iran.
Experts observe that Pakistan finds itself in a devil and deep sea scenario. On one side, it risks alienating its citizens, Iran, and Turkey, while on the other, it is ill-equipped to dismiss US demands for military bases and airspace.