Is Shashi Tharoor the Top Choice for CM in Kerala Amid High Anti-Incumbency Sentiment?
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Synopsis
A recent survey by VoteVibe highlights Shashi Tharoor as the preferred Chief Minister candidate in Kerala, revealing a significant anti-incumbency wave. With 62% of voters wanting to replace their MLAs, the political landscape is primed for change ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.
Key Takeaways
- Shashi Tharoor is the favored choice for CM among voters.
- High levels of anti-incumbency sentiment are evident.
- A notable 62% of voters wish to see new MLAs.
- Trust in the UDF is significantly higher than in the LDF.
- Voter uncertainty poses challenges for existing leadership.
Thiruvananthapuram, July 8 (NationPress) A recent pre-election survey by Mumbai-based VoteVibe indicates that Shashi Tharoor, the Congress Lok Sabha representative from Thiruvananthapuram, is the leading candidate for the Chief Minister position in Kerala, with rising anti-incumbency sentiments.
Scheduled for April/May 2026, the upcoming Assembly elections prompted this survey to assess the voters' mood in the state.
The results suggest that both primary political alliances (the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front and the Congress-led UDF) are grappling with significant leadership dilemmas that could adversely affect their electoral chances.
Among UDF candidates, the dynamic Shashi Tharoor stands out with a noteworthy 28.3% voter preference. However, a troubling 27.1% of voters express uncertainty about the UDF's leadership.
Within the ruling LDF, the leadership crisis is even more evident, with former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja receiving 24.2% support, while the current Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan trails at just 17.5%.
Most concerning for the LDF is the staggering 41.5% of voters who are uncertain about their preferred leader.
A significant finding reveals a pronounced anti-incumbency wave against CM Vijayan's administration, which has been building since 2016.
Nearly half of those surveyed (47.9%) exhibit strong anti-incumbency feelings, which increase with age, rising from 37% among younger voters (18-24 years) to 45% among those aged 55 and older.
Interestingly, women voters show slightly higher anti-incumbency sentiment at 43%, compared to 39% among men.
Furthermore, 62% of voters wish to see a change in their current Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA), with preferences split between wanting a different candidate within the same party (28%) and switching to another party (34%).
This indicates a significant rejection of the current political landscape, as only 23% of voters express satisfaction with their existing representation.
The survey also indicates a significant trust deficit regarding the CM Vijayan-led government.
In terms of development and governance, the current UDF opposition holds a substantial advantage with 38.9% voter trust, while the LDF lags at 27.8%. The BJP-led NDA has garnered 23.1% trust among voters.
VoteVibe leads the way in political research surveys across West Bengal, Assam, and BMC elections.
Point of View
The findings of the VoteVibe survey underscore a significant shift in voter sentiment in Kerala. The mixed feelings toward the existing leadership and the growing desire for change suggest a critical juncture for political parties as they prepare for the upcoming Assembly polls. The emphasis on anti-incumbency highlights the urgency for parties to address public concerns and rejuvenate their leadership strategies.
NationPress
25/07/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading in the survey for Kerala's CM?
Shashi Tharoor is the leading candidate according to the VoteVibe survey.
What is the current sentiment towards the ruling government?
There is a significant anti-incumbency sentiment, with 47.9% of voters expressing dissatisfaction with the current administration.
When are the Kerala Assembly elections scheduled?
The Assembly elections in Kerala are scheduled for April/May 2026.
What percentage of voters want to replace their current MLA?
62% of voters indicated a desire to replace their current Member of Legislative Assembly.
How does voter trust compare between the UDF and LDF?
The UDF enjoys a trust advantage of 38.9%, while the LDF trails at 27.8%.
