The Trump administration's deepening strategic embrace of Pakistan risks repeating the same geopolitical miscalculations that contributed to the 9/11 attacks and the eventual Taliban takeover of Kabul, according to a geopolitical analysis published in the Times of Israel. The warning comes as Islamabad faces mounting criticism over democratic backsliding, military dominance of civilian politics, and an intensifying crackdown on ethnic minorities.

The Historical Parallel

Sergio Restelli, an Italian political advisor, author, and geopolitical expert, argues that Washington is reprising a strategic error with deep roots. 'History often tends to repeat itself, and shortsighted leaders tend to repeat errors of their own predecessors. The Trump administration's emboldening of Pakistan is one such error which will eventually cost the United States dearly,' Restelli wrote.

He traced the pattern to 1979, when the US and Saudi Arabia backed Pakistan under General Zia ul Haq to wage a proxy war against the USSR in Afghanistan. 'Over decades, Pakistan has played both sides against each other, and 9/11 was the eventual result of this strategic mistake,' he noted. The US's continued reliance on Pakistan during the War on Terror, Restelli added, 'not only handed Kabul to the Taliban but also cost the US dearly in terms of human life and money.'

Pakistan's Cross-Border Conduct and Regional Tensions

According to Restelli's analysis, Pakistan has continued military operations across the Afghan border despite receiving international recognition, exacerbating tensions with Taliban authorities in Kabul. The growing frequency of cross-border strikes and armed confrontations has raised concerns, he argues, that Islamabad is pursuing 'coercion' over diplomatic engagement with its neighbours.

This comes amid a broader pattern that analysts say is not unique to Pakistan — governments of high regional strategic value routinely face reduced external scrutiny over domestic governance failures. Whether it is US engagement with Islamabad or the European Union maintaining its GSP-Plus trade status for Pakistan despite documented human rights concerns, international partners have reportedly been reluctant to apply meaningful pressure.

Military Consolidation and the Balochistan Crackdown

Critics increasingly argue, according to Restelli, that Pakistan is transitioning from a system of military influence over civilian politics to one where political authority is effectively concentrated in the hands of the military establishment, led by Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir.

The political crackdown has coincided with growing unrest in Balochistan. The sentencing of prominent Baloch activist Mahrang Baloch and other activists has drawn strong criticism from international human rights organisations, which argue that peaceful political dissent is increasingly being criminalised. Pakistani authorities have rejected those accusations, maintaining that prosecutions are conducted according to law. Nevertheless, Restelli warns, the perception that ethnic and political grievances are being addressed primarily through coercive measures risks further alienating Baloch communities.

The Risk of a New Dictatorship in South Asia

Restelli raises a pointed question about the trajectory of Pakistani civil-military relations under current US patronage: 'How long before Field Marshal Munir decides to take advantage of President Trump's patronage and install himself as the President of Pakistan?' The warning underscores a broader concern — that diplomatic cover from Washington could provide political insulation for democratic backsliding and embolden a formal military takeover in South Asia.

If present trends continue, analysts caution, the consequences will be borne most directly by political opponents, ethnic minorities, and the broader stability of the region — with potential long-term blowback for the United States itself.