India's green hydrogen sector to draw $180–200 billion investment by 2030
Synopsis
A new CARE ESG Ratings report puts a $180–200 billion investment figure on India's green hydrogen ambitions through 2030 — but the real story is the execution gap: green hydrogen still costs more than twice grey hydrogen, global commissioned capacity is a fraction of announced targets, and EU carbon tariffs are already threatening Indian steel exporters with charges of up to $270 per tonne. The cost curve must bend sharply for India's ambitions to survive contact with commercial reality.
Key Takeaways
India's green hydrogen sector could attract $180–200 billion in investment through 2030 , according to a CARE ESG Ratings Limited report.
Green hydrogen currently costs ₹350–₹450 per kg in India, more than double the ₹160–₹200 per kg cost of conventional grey hydrogen.
Costs are projected to fall to around $2.4 per kg by 2030 as renewables and electrolyser technology scale up.
Indian steel exporters face potential EU CBAM charges of $70–$190 per metric tonne , rising above $270 where default emissions values apply.
Globally, only slightly more than 6 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen is operational or near-commissioned, against announced targets of 27 Mtpa by 2030.
India consumes 17–19 million metric tonnes of ammonia annually; a shift to green ammonia could cut fossil-fuel import dependence.
India's green hydrogen sector is set to attract investments of $180 billion–$200 billion through 2030, according to a report released on Tuesday, 27 October 2026 by CARE ESG Ratings Limited. The findings underscore the scale of capital mobilisation required for India to establish itself as a globally competitive low-carbon hydrogen producer.
Why Green Hydrogen Matters Now
Green hydrogen is no longer viewed solely as a decarbonisation instrument — it is increasingly tied to export competitiveness, energy security, and India's ability to become a leading supplier of low-carbon industrial materials. The report identifies steel, fertilisers, refining, and chemicals as sectors with the highest potential to benefit from a concerted green hydrogen push.
The urgency is sharpened by the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set to impose carbon-linked costs on emissions-intensive exports. Indian steel exporters could face additional costs of $70–$190 per metric tonne on EU-bound shipments — potentially exceeding $270 per metric tonne where default emissions values apply, according to the report.
The Cost Challenge
Green hydrogen currently costs approximately ₹350–₹450 per kg in India, compared with ₹160–₹200 per kg for conventional grey hydrogen — a gap that remains a significant commercial barrier. The report projects that costs could decline to around $2.4 per kg by 2030 as renewable electricity becomes more competitive, electrolyser prices fall, and projects achieve scale.
Until that cost crossover is reached, adoption will depend heavily on policy support, carbon pricing mechanisms, and assured industrial demand, the report noted.
Infrastructure and Certification Gaps
High production costs are not the only obstacle. The report flagged limited commissioned capacity, infrastructure gaps, and evolving international certification requirements as significant barriers to large-scale adoption. Globally, announced low-emissions hydrogen projects could deliver 27 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by 2030, but projects that are operational, under construction, or at final investment decision account for only slightly more than 6 Mtpa — a delivery gap that reflects the sector's execution risk worldwide.
Ammonia and Import Dependence
India consumes approximately 17–19 million metric tonnes of ammonia annually, primarily produced using natural gas. Scaling up green ammonia production could reduce the country's dependence on fossil-fuel imports while cutting associated emissions — a dual strategic benefit the report highlighted.
What the Industry Said
Nikunj Dube, Chief Ratings Officer at CareEdge-ESG, said: 'India's green hydrogen ambitions must translate into commercially viable projects, supported by reliable offtake agreements, competitive production costs and robust infrastructure.' The statement reflects a broader industry consensus that announcements and policy intent must now be followed by bankable project structures.
What's Next
With the National Green Hydrogen Mission already providing a policy framework, the next milestones will be the commissioning of pilot projects, the finalisation of domestic certification standards, and the resolution of grid-access and transmission bottlenecks. How quickly production costs converge toward the $2.4 per kg target will determine whether India emerges as a net exporter — or remains a potential producer watching the window close.
Point of View
The sector's track record of converting ambition into output is weak. India's green hydrogen cost at ₹350–₹450 per kg is still more than double grey hydrogen — meaning no industrial buyer signs a long-term offtake without either a carbon price that punishes the alternative or a subsidy that erodes the economics on the other side. The CBAM pressure on steel is a genuine forcing function, but it will hit exporters in the short term before any green hydrogen transition can cushion the blow. India needs a credible commissioning pipeline, not just announced capacity, to avoid the same gap that has plagued global hydrogen forecasts since 2021.
NationPress
27 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How much investment is India's green hydrogen sector expected to attract by 2030?
India's green hydrogen sector is projected to attract investments of $180 billion–$200 billion through 2030, according to a report by CARE ESG Ratings Limited released on 27 October 2026. The figure covers the full value chain including production, infrastructure, and industrial offtake development.
Why is green hydrogen more expensive than grey hydrogen in India?
Green hydrogen currently costs ₹350–₹450 per kg in India, compared with ₹160–₹200 per kg for conventional grey hydrogen, primarily because renewable-powered electrolysis is more capital-intensive than steam methane reforming. Costs are projected to fall to around $2.4 per kg by 2030 as renewable electricity and electrolyser technology become more competitive and projects scale up.
How does the EU's CBAM affect Indian exporters linked to green hydrogen?
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose carbon-linked costs on emissions-intensive exports such as steel. Indian steel exporters could face charges of $70–$190 per metric tonne on EU-bound shipments, potentially exceeding $270 per metric tonne where default emissions values apply — creating a direct commercial incentive to transition toward green hydrogen-based production.
Which sectors in India stand to benefit most from green hydrogen adoption?
The CARE ESG Ratings report identifies steel, fertilisers, refining, and chemicals as the sectors with the greatest potential to benefit from India's green hydrogen push. India also consumes 17–19 million metric tonnes of ammonia annually using natural gas; shifting to green ammonia could reduce fossil-fuel import dependence and lower emissions.
What are the main barriers to large-scale green hydrogen adoption in India?
The report highlights high production costs, limited commissioned capacity, infrastructure gaps, and evolving international certification requirements as the principal barriers. Globally, only slightly more than 6 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen is operational or near-commissioned, against announced targets of 27 Mtpa by 2030, illustrating the gap between ambition and execution.
