Nearly 19.2 million people — approximately 38 per cent of Afghanistan's population — are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity during the November–April 2026–27 lean season, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warned on 18 October 2026. The figure marks a sharp rise from the 17.4 million projected for the same period a year earlier, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.

Scale of the Crisis

Of the 19.2 million at risk, around five million Afghans are expected to face emergency levels of hunger, classified as IPC Phase 4 — double the number recorded for the April–September 2026 period. The provinces of Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, and rural Ghazni are expected to see the most severe conditions.

Acute malnutrition is also set to worsen sharply, with cases projected to rise by nearly 10 per cent compared to 2026, reaching four million. A quarter of those cases are described as severe and life-threatening, with women and children identified as the most exposed groups. Prevention and treatment services are reportedly lagging far behind the scale of need.

What Is Driving the Emergency

The agencies attribute the deteriorating situation to a convergence of compounding shocks. More than 1.2 million Afghans have been forcibly returned from Iran and Pakistan this year alone, placing additional strain on already-stretched communities. Border closures and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up prices of essential goods, eroding household purchasing power further.

Sharp funding shortfalls for humanitarian operations have meanwhile left agencies unable to scale responses to match rising need. Notably, while favourable rainfall in 2026 boosted crop production, persistent unemployment means many families who do not grow their own food still cannot afford a nutritious diet — a structural gap that a good harvest alone cannot bridge.

What FAO and WFP Said

Richard Trenchard, FAO Representative in Afghanistan, acknowledged the agricultural progress while underscoring its limits: 'This year's strong harvest shows what Afghan farmers can achieve. But for a parent with no steady income, nutritious food in the market can still be out of reach for their family. The drumbeat of shock and crisis is relentless, but we know progress is possible,' he said.

WFP Country Director in Afghanistan John Aylieff warned that the window for effective intervention is narrowing rapidly. 'Hunger and malnutrition are tightening their grip on Afghanistan's families, pushing more people towards the brink just as resources to respond are running short. We still have a window to act, but it is closing fast. With urgent support, families can get through the winter with dignity. Without it, many will face impossible choices no parent should have to make,' Aylieff said.

Funding Gap and What Comes Next

The crisis is increasingly being defined, in the WFP's framing, by the widening gap between humanitarian need and available funding — a structural challenge that has worsened each year since international engagement with Afghanistan contracted following the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Without urgent donor mobilisation ahead of the lean season, the agencies warn that millions of Afghan families could face the winter without adequate food or nutrition support.