China is constructing an unprecedented hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo — known internationally as the Brahmaputra — in Tibet, near the heavily militarised border with India, raising grave concerns about downstream consequences for millions of people across South Asia. A recent analysis warns the project could function as a 'potential water bomb' threatening northeastern India and Bangladesh.

What China Is Building

The dam is situated in the Himalayan seismic belt, one of the world's most earthquake-prone zones, with a documented history of catastrophic tremors. The scale of the project is described as unprecedented in global hydropower terms, dwarfing comparable installations on other transboundary rivers.

Critically, the alarm is not coming solely from foreign observers. A recent paper published in a Beijing-linked, Mandarin-language journal — 'Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology' — has flagged serious geological risks at the construction site itself.

China's Own Scientists Sound the Alarm

Brahma Chellaney, Professor Emeritus of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, writing in 'Project Syndicate', cited the Chinese geologists' findings in detail. According to Chellaney, the geologists conclude that the terrain has a 'loose structure and weak cohesion' and warn that fault movement or an earthquake could easily trigger large-scale instability, threatening both the reservoir and surrounding infrastructure.

The authors of the paper reportedly recommend reinforcing the reservoir slopes, installing retaining structures, and redesigning key elements to reduce the risk of catastrophe. Chellaney noted: 'When scientists working under a communist regime issue such warnings, the international community must pay attention.'

The Downstream Threat to India and Bangladesh

For northeastern India, the Brahmaputra is a vital lifeline, sustaining agriculture, fisheries, wetlands and millions of livelihoods. The river then flows into Bangladesh, where it serves as the single largest source of freshwater.

According to the analysis, a catastrophic structural failure — or even an emergency release of impounded water following seismic damage — could unleash devastating floods across densely populated downstream plains with little warning. As Chellaney wrote: 'What begins as an engineering failure in Tibet could become a humanitarian catastrophe extending all the way to Bangladesh, the world's most densely populated country outside microstates and mini-states.'

Much like China's large-scale dam projects on the Mekong, the super-dam could alter transboundary flows and restrict the downstream movement of nutrient-rich sediment that sustains river ecosystems and farmland across riparian nations.

Water as Strategic Leverage

The report underscores that the geological danger is only part of a larger strategic picture. China, it argues, is increasingly transforming its control of the Tibetan Plateau — the source of most of Asia's major rivers — into geopolitical leverage. Beijing has reportedly built cascades of dams on transboundary rivers, withheld hydrological data during periods of tension, and resisted entering any water-sharing treaty with downstream states.

'Water has become another instrument of coercive statecraft,' the analysis states, drawing a direct parallel with China's conduct on the Mekong, where downstream nations including Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia have repeatedly raised concerns about unilateral dam operations.

What Needs to Happen Next

The report calls on Beijing to prioritise transparency and formally acknowledge its transboundary responsibilities before the 'potential water bomb' takes shape upstream. It argues that the fact China's own scientific community appears to have a clearer grasp of the project's dangers than its political leadership is willing to admit makes the case for international scrutiny even more urgent. Downstream governments, including India and Bangladesh, are expected to continue pressing for real-time hydrological data sharing as diplomatic leverage builds.