The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has warned that imminent flooding could displace nearly 874,000 people in Somalia over the October–December 2023 period, as the country enters a rainy season forecast to bring above-normal rainfall driven by strengthening El Niño conditions. The UN migration agency issued the alert on Thursday, 22 October, urging the international community to act before the window for early intervention closes.

Scale of the Threat

New projections by IOM and the Danish Refugee Council estimate that 874,319 people could be uprooted between October and December, with flooding driving 92 per cent of that displacement. The warning comes as Somalia already grapples with the compounding effects of prolonged drought and repeated cycles of forced movement — conditions that have left communities with little resilience to absorb another climate shock.

Signs of the impending crisis are already visible on the ground. The Jubba River at Dollow is approaching flood levels, while the Shabelle River at Jowhar is rising toward the top of its banks. In Baidoa, heavy rainfall has already damaged homes, forcing families to flee several neighbourhoods.

What the Crisis Means for Communities

Rising floodwaters threaten to wipe out crops, devastate livelihoods, contaminate water supplies, and sever access to healthcare and essential services, according to IOM. For communities already battered by successive climate shocks, the agency warns this could deepen an already critical humanitarian situation well beyond emergency thresholds.

The projected displacement would affect some of the most vulnerable populations in the Horn of Africa — people who, in many cases, have been displaced multiple times over the past several years. Notably, this is not a singular weather event but part of a broader pattern of climate-driven crises that Somalia has faced with increasing frequency and severity.

A Severe Funding Shortfall

Despite the scale of the threat, IOM said it has secured only 14.4 per cent of the $16.62 million needed to respond to the impending El Niño floods. The shortfall puts at risk relief efforts designed to support over 517,000 vulnerable people across flood-prone areas of Somalia.

Manuel Marques Pereira, Chief of Mission for IOM in Somalia, said: “There is still time to reduce the impact, but that window is closing. We urgently need funding to help people protect their homes and livelihoods, reach safer ground where necessary, and avoid another cycle of displacement.”

Response Efforts and What Is Still Needed

IOM said it is working alongside Somali authorities and local partners to strengthen early warning systems, map evacuation routes, and pre-position emergency aid. However, acute funding shortages are bottlenecking critical response operations.

“Without immediate resources, plans to build safe relocation sites and deliver emergency shelter, clean water, sanitation, and healthcare remain severely constrained,” IOM said in a statement.

The agency has called for urgent international support to scale up early action before rising floodwaters displace hundreds of thousands more families. With the rainy season already underway and river levels climbing, the timeline for effective pre-emptive intervention is narrowing rapidly.