The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has warned that the Middle East crisis is generating severe ripple effects on global humanitarian supply chains, hampering the delivery of aid to millions of refugees and displaced people worldwide. UNHCR spokesperson Carlotta Wolf issued the warning at a regular press briefing in Geneva on 2 May, citing disruptions to key maritime routes and a sharp rise in logistics costs.

Key Disruptions to Maritime Routes

Heightened insecurity around critical Gulf routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted maritime traffic and forced aid agencies to rely on longer, more expensive alternatives. According to Wolf, freight rates from key sourcing countries have risen by nearly 18 per cent since the start of hostilities. Meanwhile, the capacity of UNHCR's global transport providers has dropped from 97 per cent to 77 per cent since the beginning of this year.

The closure of critical sea lanes has added significant operational complexity, with rerouting shipments around the Cape of Good Hope adding up to 25 days in delivery times, Wolf noted.

Costs Have More Than Doubled for Some Operations

The financial strain on humanitarian operations has been acute. "For some shipments, costs have more than doubled, such as transport costs for relief items from UNHCR global stockpiles in Dubai to our Sudan and Chad operations," Wolf said. Rising fuel, food, and freight costs are compounding the crisis, driving up prices and delaying the delivery of critical supplies across multiple regions.

These escalating costs, Wolf warned, "disproportionately affect people who are already living in emergencies, including millions of refugees and displaced people who are among the hardest hit, while also reducing the ability of aid agencies to deliver timely assistance."

Africa Bears a Disproportionate Burden

The UNHCR spokesperson expressed particular concern about the impact on Africa, home to many overlapping displacement crises that are, in her words, "often tragically neglected." In Kenya, where one of UNHCR's global stockpiles is located, a recent fuel price increase of around 15 per cent has triggered delays and reduced truck availability for shipments to Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan.

In Sudan, the cost of delivering aid has reportedly doubled in recent months. This comes amid an already catastrophic humanitarian situation in the country, where millions remain displaced and dependent on international assistance.

Warning of Further Constraints Ahead

Wolf stressed that the situation could worsen significantly if the instability persists. "If instability in the Middle East persists, rising costs, delays and limited transport capacity are likely to constrain humanitarian operations further," she said. Aid agencies, already stretched thin by funding gaps and overlapping crises, face the prospect of having to make increasingly difficult choices about where and how to deploy limited resources. The trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East will, in large part, determine how severely the world's most vulnerable populations are affected in the months ahead.