Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Canada before the end of 2026, with India's High Commissioner to Canada Dinesh Patnaik describing the trip as 'almost confirmed' — a signal of how dramatically the bilateral relationship has rebounded after hitting a historic low in 2023.

What the Indian Envoy Said

'Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed it. Prime Minister Modi will be visiting Canada towards the end of the year,' Patnaik said in an interview with CPAC's Open Question, hosted by Marc-Andre Cossette, posted on 9 October. 'This just shows the shift that has taken place in the relationship and it's today a very vibrant strong relationship,' he added.

The interview coincides with Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu leading a Team Canada Trade Mission to India from 12 to 17 October, comprising nearly 300 delegates with stops in Mumbai and Bengaluru. Ottawa has described it as the largest trade delegation Canada has sent to India in over 30 years.

CEPA Deal: 'Fastest We Have Done with Any Country'

Patnaik expressed confidence that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) would be finalised before the first anniversary of its formal launch — dated to 21 November, when the two Prime Ministers met in Johannesburg on the sidelines of the G20. 'I think before the one year is complete we'll be able to finalise the agreement,' he said.

'This would be one of the fastest we have done with any country,' Patnaik noted, adding that a decade of prior negotiations with Canada had laid groundwork. 'Negotiations move at the speed of trust. And because the trust factor is much higher today, our negotiations are much faster,' he said. The two sides have set a target to double bilateral trade to $70 billion within five years.

Energy, Tariffs and Trade Priorities

Patnaik outlined India's core asks under the deal: a zero-tariff regime across sectors including textiles, leather, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, where Canada currently levies duties that other trading partners do not. On the import side, India is keen to buy oil, gas, agri-foods, LNG, and LPG — specifically butane and propane — from Canada. India is already purchasing uranium from Canada, he noted.

The envoy also flagged non-tariff barriers — sanitary and phytosanitary rules, rules of origin, and customs documentation — as active points of negotiation. He acknowledged earlier doubts about Canada's ability to deliver energy reliably, citing gaps in pipelines, ports, and liquefaction terminals, but said he now saw 'a new Canada' under Prime Minister Carney, pointing to the major projects office and the accelerated pace of legislation.

Diplomatic Thaw After 2023 Crisis

The buoyancy in the relationship is striking given that ties between India and Canada collapsed in 2023 after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged a potential link between Indian government agents and the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India rejected the allegation as 'absurd', and the diplomatic fallout was severe. The turnaround under Carney has been swift by any measure.

Patnaik said External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand had met more than 12 times in the past year alone — an extraordinary frequency for two foreign ministers whose governments had expelled each other's diplomats just months earlier. He also positioned Canada as India's 'lead into North America', given Ottawa's close ties with Washington, while describing India as a nearly $4 trillion economy on course to reach roughly $25 trillion by 2047.

What Comes Next

With the trade mission under way, CEPA talks at an advanced stage, and a Modi visit reportedly on the calendar, the India-Canada relationship appears to be moving faster than at any point since the Trudeau-era rupture. Whether the CEPA deadline holds — and whether a confirmed Modi visit translates into a formal signing — will be the key tests of this diplomatic reset in the weeks ahead.