Pakistan is confronting a deepening security crisis across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), with Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir reportedly issuing a 72-hour ultimatum to senior military commanders and intelligence officials to either bring the situation under control or resign, according to an analysis published in Eurasia Review by retired Indian Army officer Nilesh Kunwar. The report paints a picture of a military establishment under severe strain on multiple fronts simultaneously.

Munir's Ultimatum and What It Reveals

According to Kunwar's analysis, Munir had publicly vowed — more than a year ago — to decisively defeat Baloch armed groups. That deadline has passed with the situation measurably worse, not better. The reported 72-hour 'perform or pack-up' ultimatum to his own commanders, the analysis argues, is an admission of institutional failure — a rare and deeply embarrassing step in any military chain of command.

The Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based research organisation, documented the deterioration in its Pakistan Security Report 2025: Balochistan recorded a 30 per cent increase in attacks by Baloch armed groups in the reference period compared to 2024, along with a 26 per cent rise in fatalities. Critics argue these figures represent a damning performance assessment for the military leadership.

Balochistan: A Long-Running Conflict

The freedom struggle in Balochistan, according to the report, dates back to 1948. Baloch armed groups have reportedly sustained their campaign despite facing heavy artillery, armed drones, and helicopter gunship attacks — a resilience that analysts say reflects deep-rooted grievances over what the groups describe as illegal occupation.

Notably, Pakistan's intelligence agencies have also come under scrutiny for failing to generate actionable intelligence, as evidenced by large-scale operations such as Operation Herof 2 and the Jaffar Express hijacking, both of which caught security forces off-guard, according to the analysis.

Kunwar draws a pointed historical parallel: former Pakistan Army Chief Pervez Musharraf issued similar threats to Baloch groups more than two decades ago, to no lasting effect. The analysis argues that Munir repeated the same strategic error — relying on military force, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and judicial suppression of peaceful rights campaigners — without addressing root causes.

BLA Attack on Military Convoy in Mastung

The report comes against the backdrop of a significant attack claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) in Mastung district, Balochistan. BLA spokesperson Jeeyand Baloch stated that the group's Fatah Squad targeted a convoy of buses transporting Pakistani army personnel, their security details, and military reinforcements in the Khadkucha area.

According to the BLA's statement, 'more than 45 personnel of the occupying army have been eliminated and dozens of others injured in this operation.' The spokesperson added that casualty figures could rise further. These claims have not been independently verified.

KP and the Afghanistan Dimension

Balochistan is not Pakistan's only active front. The analysis notes that the Pakistan Army has yet to establish the upper hand in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where it is reportedly in a state of conflict with Afghanistan. Compounding the military's difficulties, New Delhi continues to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, a significant diplomatic and strategic pressure point that Munir's earlier public warnings and threats have so far failed to reverse.

What Comes Next

The convergence of crises — an unresolved insurgency in Balochistan, an active conflict zone in KP, a tense border with Afghanistan, and diplomatic pressure from India — leaves Pakistan's military establishment navigating an unusually crowded threat landscape. Whether Munir's internal ultimatum produces results on the ground, or merely accelerates blame-shifting within the institution, will likely define the trajectory of Pakistan's security situation in the months ahead.