Pakistan is confronting a cascading ecological emergency — melting glaciers in the north, rising seas in the south, choking smog across Punjab, and chronic water scarcity in Balochistan and Karachi — as the country's environmental stresses collide with rapid population growth, poor governance, and crumbling infrastructure, according to a report published in The Express Tribune magazine. The findings raise urgent questions about whether Pakistani authorities and civil society can recognise the scale of the danger before a crisis tips into collapse.

A National Security and Survival Challenge

Climate activist Zain Haq, quoted in the Express Tribune report, described the situation as 'an unfolding national security, public health, and survival challenge.' He noted that the consequences 'threaten the most basic foundations of human life: food, water, shelter, energy, and breathable air.' Haq also pointed out that while Pakistan's contribution to global emissions remains relatively small, 'vulnerability does not absolve responsibility.'

Pakistan is ranked among the most climate-vulnerable nations on the planet, and each of its major cities faces a distinct threat profile. Notably, the country has experienced some of the most extreme weather events globally in recent years, yet institutional preparedness remains critically weak.

Groundwater Depletion and Rising Temperatures

In Quetta, the situation is particularly acute. According to data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), groundwater that sat just 50 metres below the surface around Quetta at the turn of the century now requires drilling to at least 150 metres. The water table is reportedly declining by 2 to 5 metres every year — an existential threat to a population that continues to grow.

Rising temperatures compound the crisis. The global average temperature increase currently stands at 1.5 degrees Celsius, but for cities like Quetta and Lahore, a 2-degree global average rise could translate into a 5-degree local increase. According to the report, this could push summer temperatures in Quetta to between 41 and 46 degrees Celsius within the next 10 to 15 years.

Karachi's Water and Food Crisis

Karachi, unlike parts of Punjab, lacks underground water reserves entirely, leaving it dependent on surface water infrastructure. The government has pointed to the K4 project — designed to pipe water from Keenjhar Lake to the city — as a solution, but the project, originally scheduled for completion by 2019, remains unfinished.

Food security presents an equally alarming risk. During the 2023 floods, Pakistan reportedly lost 90% of its crops, worsening inflation across the country. Looking ahead, the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) has warned that the 2026 monsoon is projected to be 26% more severe than the previous year. The Express Tribune report cautioned that 'with an increasingly unstable and unpredictable climate and weather patterns, food production could be seriously disrupted.'

Structural Vulnerabilities and What Comes Next

Analysts argue that Pakistan's climate vulnerability is inseparable from its governance deficit. Outdated infrastructure, delayed public projects such as K4, and a lack of coordinated disaster preparedness have left millions exposed. The convergence of population pressure — Pakistan's population is among the fastest-growing in South Asia — with ecological breakdown creates a compound risk that no single intervention can resolve.

This comes amid a broader global pattern where climate impacts are disproportionately borne by low-emission, high-vulnerability nations. As the 2026 monsoon season approaches, Pakistan's ability to absorb another round of extreme weather without structural reform will be closely watched by international observers and aid agencies alike.