Pakistan's renewed push to position its vast mineral wealth as a cornerstone of its relationship with the United States is running into a harsh reality check, according to a report by the US-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). The report, released on 31 October, finds persistent and widening gaps between Islamabad's ambitious economic promises and its actual capacity to deliver on them.

Decades of Investment, Little to Show

Despite years of Chinese capital flowing into infrastructure, energy, and mining ventures under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the country's mining sector has failed to emerge as a meaningful driver of economic growth. Gwadar district in Balochistan province continues to fall well short of its commercial potential, while the multibillion-dollar Reko Diq copper and gold project — one of the world's largest undeveloped deposits — faces renewed delays, reportedly due to worsening security conditions in the region.

The MEMRI report draws attention to the structural contradiction at the heart of Pakistan's mineral pitch: 'Pakistan's vast mineral resources are emerging as a new pillar of its relationship with the United States. From Balochistan's copper and gold deposits to the chromite, gemstones and other minerals of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, these resources offer considerable economic potential. Yet their development raises a fundamental question: who controls Pakistan's mineral wealth, and who benefits from its extraction?'

Military's Growing Grip on Economic Decisions

The report identifies Pakistan's military establishment as a central and increasingly dominant force in shaping both economic policymaking and foreign investment decisions. It singles out Field Marshal Asim Munir, whose consolidation of military authority has coincided with a contraction of civic space and a centralisation of control over natural resource policy.

According to the report, Washington's interest in diversifying its critical mineral supply chains — reducing dependence on China — creates fresh openings for Pakistan. However, it cautions that this convergence of interests risks strengthening institutions that operate with limited civilian oversight, complicating the long-term governance of any investment framework.

Security Crisis Undermines Investment Case

The report identifies Pakistan's deteriorating internal security environment as the single biggest obstacle to realising its mineral investment potential. Militant violence continues to disrupt areas that contain some of the country's richest reserves — precisely the regions being offered to foreign investors.

Citing data from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), the report states that Pakistan recorded at least 1,066 militant attacks in 2025, a rise of approximately 17 per cent from the 908 incidents logged in 2024. That figure represents the highest annual total since 2014.

The trend showed no sign of abating in 2026. PICSS monthly data recorded 316 militant attacks in the first quarter alone. March 2026 saw 146 incidents — roughly 76 per cent higher than the 83 attacks recorded in February.

What Persistent Insecurity Means for Mining Projects

The report spells out the operational consequences for any prospective investor: 'Mining projects depend upon secure transport corridors, predictable access to extraction sites, protection of technical personnel and substantial long-term capital commitments. Persistent insecurity raises operational costs, complicates financing and can delay the construction of mines, processing facilities and related infrastructure.'

This comes amid a broader geopolitical context in which Pakistan is seeking to leverage US interest in critical minerals to diversify away from near-total economic dependence on China. Notably, Beijing has already channelled significant investment into the same sectors — yet repeated security-related delays have raised serious questions about the commercial viability of those ventures. The pattern, analysts warn, is at risk of repeating itself with American capital.

What Happens Next

Whether Washington proceeds with deeper mineral engagement will likely depend on how seriously it weighs the governance and security risks flagged in analyses such as this one. For Pakistan, the challenge is not just attracting investment — it is demonstrating that it can protect it. Until the security situation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stabilises, the country's mineral diplomacy may continue to generate headlines without generating returns.