Pakistan's defence commitments to Saudi Arabia could draw Islamabad deeper into the escalating Middle East conflict, placing mounting pressure on army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir as hostilities between Riyadh and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen intensify, according to a report by The Guardian.

Origins of the Defence Pact

The arrangement initially appeared to be a straightforward strategic gain for Pakistan. Field Marshal Munir was present in Riyadh last September for the signing of the defence agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Under its terms, Saudi Arabia would provide Pakistan with billions of dollars in investments and loans, while Pakistan would train Saudi forces and defend the kingdom in the event of an attack.

Analysts reportedly believed at the time that improving US-Iran relations would limit the risk of a wider regional conflict. However, that calculus changed after the US and Israel began bombing Iran, followed by Iranian missile strikes on Gulf states including Saudi Arabia.

How the Conflict Expanded

The escalation reignited Saudi Arabia's confrontation with the Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen. According to the report, a fragile Saudi-Houthi truce collapsed after the Houthis made territorial gains in Yemen and launched drone and missile strikes against Saudi territory. Riyadh responded with airstrikes on Yemen, raising concerns that a full-scale conflict could return.

The stakes for Pakistan escalated further in August when the Saudi defence pact was expanded to include Turkey and renamed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. Under this trilateral arrangement, an armed attack on any one of the three signatories would be treated as an attack on all three — a clause that could compel Pakistani military action if Saudi Arabia invokes the pact against the Houthis.

Analyst and Opposition Warnings

Defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa was quoted in the report as saying: 'I don't think Asim Munir properly calculated the threats the region was facing - and that Pakistan might need to put its troops on the line quite so soon.'

Opposition senator Raja Nasir Abbas issued a stark warning: 'It will be a disaster for the country if Pakistan jumps into war.' He noted that Pakistan was already grappling with two lethal insurgencies, a struggling economy, and rising inflation.

Analysts cited in the report said that if Saudi Arabia activates the Mecca pact against the Houthis, Pakistan could face pressure to deploy troops — including thousands of personnel already stationed in Saudi Arabia for training purposes.

Pakistan's Strategic Dilemma

The report highlighted Pakistan's deep economic dependence on Saudi Arabia, which has recently provided Islamabad with $8 billion in funds and investments. At the same time, officials in Pakistan are reportedly concerned about being drawn into a broader conflict.

Pakistan shares a border with Iran and faces its own security pressures, including militancy and instability along its frontiers. Any direct Pakistani involvement against the Houthis could be perceived as Islamabad taking a clear position against Tehran, potentially triggering regional and domestic complications. The report also noted that a Houthi drone was intercepted south of Mecca before it could enter the holy city's prohibited airspace, underscoring how close the conflict has come to Saudi Arabia's most sensitive territory.

Broader Regional Context

The wider Middle East conflict continues to spread, with the war involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis emerging as a significant front. Attacks have threatened energy infrastructure and regional shipping lanes, raising the economic and geopolitical stakes for all parties. For Pakistan, the convergence of military obligations, economic dependency, and border vulnerabilities presents a strategic dilemma that Islamabad is reportedly struggling to navigate.