US President Donald Trump on Sunday, 28 September 2026 refused to rule out renewed American military strikes against Iran before the upcoming midterm elections, while simultaneously predicting the conflict would end soon and that global oil prices would fall sharply once it did. The remarks, made across separate appearances on Fox News, Axios, and at the PGA Tour Presidents Cup, drew immediate responses from senior Iranian officials who warned they were ready for resumed fighting even as they kept the door open to diplomacy.

What Trump Said on Fresh Strikes

When a Fox News interviewer asked whether US military strikes could return before the midterms, Trump declined to give a direct denial. 'I don't want to say that. I mean, it's possible, but I just don't want to say that,' he said. Asked separately whether he was considering resuming strikes, he added: 'I am always thinking about it.'

Trump framed Washington's current posture as a dual campaign — military pressure combined with Operation Economic Outcast, an economic isolation strategy targeting Tehran. 'I think we'll win it both ways. We've already won it really from a military standpoint,' he said, while making clear military operations had not been wound down. 'But that doesn't mean we've stopped that,' he added.

Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz

Trump linked a swift end to the conflict directly to a steep fall in international oil prices. 'As soon as Iran gives up, as soon as the war is over, which will be soon, oil is going to come plummeting down,' he told reporters at the White House before departing for Illinois. He repeated the forecast at the Presidents Cup: 'The oil will go down, way down to what it was before the war.'

The President also claimed a record volume of petroleum had moved through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night. 'Last night we took a record amount of oil out from the strait, more than we took out before the war,' he said. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas shipments; any sustained disruption ripples through energy prices, freight rates, and insurance costs across Asia and beyond.

Trump on Negotiations — and Tehran's Overreach

Trump indicated he expected further negotiations with Iran during the week but said Iran's latest proposal fell short of Washington's requirements. 'They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make,' he said in a telephone interview cited by Fox News. 'It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.'

He also insisted Iran's economy and military had been severely degraded. 'If you look at their economy, it's gone. They have no economy,' he said. His core red line remains unchanged: 'The key is, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.'

Iran's Response: Dialogue and a Doomsday Warning

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told CBS News' Face the Nation that Tehran remained engaged in dialogue and was prepared to discuss limits on its nuclear programme. 'We're still talking, we're still engaging in dialogue, and we're making our demands within the framework of international law,' he said. Pezeshkian added that Iran was willing to negotiate access for international nuclear inspectors but wanted firm assurances that Washington was not pursuing regime change. 'We don't want to fight, but certainly if they strike us, we will defend ourselves,' he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a sharper tone. 'We are fully prepared for the war to be resumed. We stand firm in the face of any new aggression, even if it comes to a doomsday war,' he warned, before adding that Tehran remained open to a diplomatic path. 'It is up to President Trump to choose,' Araghchi said.

Why This Matters Beyond the US-Iran Bilateral

The ambiguity in Trump's language — neither confirming nor denying imminent strikes — sustains a risk premium in global energy markets at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Notably, Trump's domestic political calendar is now openly part of his public framing of the conflict, raising questions about how midterm considerations might shape military decision-making. With both sides publicly signalling willingness to fight while also claiming openness to talks, the risk of miscalculation remains elevated. The coming week's negotiations, if they materialise, will be closely watched by energy-importing nations across Asia, including India, which remains significantly exposed to Middle East supply disruptions.