Senior US lawmakers and policy experts issued a stark warning on 6 June that Turkey is steadily retreating from democratic governance, with growing alarm over political repression, judicial independence, and the imprisonment of opposition leaders — all ahead of a critical NATO summit scheduled in Ankara next month.

Key Developments at the Congressional Hearing

At a hearing of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, legislators from both parties questioned whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government would permit meaningful political competition. Commission Co-Chair Rep. Christopher Smith framed the session around a pointed question: 'Can Turkey find its way to freedom?'

Smith argued that democratic institutions in Turkey have been so severely eroded that 'it will be very difficult to restore civil and political freedom in its most basic aspects, the rule of law, free and fair elections, judicial independence, religious freedom, and respect for internationally recognised human rights.'

The Imamoglu Arrest: A Critical Turning Point

Lawmakers and witnesses repeatedly cited the March 2025 arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — widely regarded as Erdogan's strongest political challenger — as a decisive moment in Turkey's democratic decline. 'His arrest in March of 2025 came on the very day that his party was expected to nominate him as its candidate for the next presidential election,' Smith noted.

Commission Co-Chair Rep. James McGovern said conditions had worsened since previous congressional reviews. 'My impression is that things are getting worse,' he said, citing documented pressure on opposition groups and journalists.

Experts Warn of Shift Toward Full Authoritarianism

Andrew O'Donohue, a scholar at Harvard University and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told lawmakers that Turkey was approaching a decisive inflection point. 'Turkey is transitioning from competitive authoritarianism, a system in which elections are unfair but still winnable for the opposition, toward full authoritarianism, a system in which the opposition cannot win power at the ballot box,' he said.

Henri Barkey, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that power had become dangerously concentrated. 'What has emerged over the past decade is not merely democratic backsliding in the abstract but a system of personal rule, a regime increasingly organised around the political survival, institutional prerogatives, and personal preferences of a single individual,' he said.

Testimony from a Former Political Prisoner

Former political prisoner and US citizen Serkan Golge delivered emotional testimony about spending nearly three years in Turkish prisons after being charged under anti-terror laws. 'I survived prison, but survival is not justice,' he told lawmakers. Recalling his son's reaction during a border inspection after his release — 'No, dad, not again, not again' — Golge urged Washington to press Ankara to comply with rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, arguing that Turkey's anti-terrorism legislation was being weaponised against lawful conduct.

NATO Summit and US Leverage

The hearing converged on the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara in July, with witnesses pressing the Trump administration to raise human rights concerns directly with Erdogan. O'Donohue argued that Washington holds real leverage: 'The Turkish government wants cooperation with the United States. It is within our capacity as a democracy to condition that bilateral cooperation on increased movement by the Turkish government towards protecting human rights and democracy.'

The hearing signals growing bipartisan pressure on the administration to treat Turkey's democratic backsliding as a foreign policy priority — not just a human rights footnote — as the NATO summit approaches.