US AI export programme draws 78 applications, 28+ minerals deals in China race
Synopsis
The Trump administration's AI export programme drew 78 applications in its first wave — nearly three times internal projections — while Washington has quietly locked in more than 28 critical minerals deals. Together, these moves reveal a two-front US strategy: controlling the AI technology stack abroad while breaking China's grip on the raw materials that power it.
Key Takeaways
The American AI Export Programme received 78 applications in its first wave — roughly three times what officials had projected.
The Trump administration has concluded more than 28 bilateral critical minerals agreements to secure supply chains for advanced technologies.
Assistant Secretary David Fogel described the AI initiative as a direct race against China , saying 'second place failure is not an option.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted 55 international delegations at a critical minerals ministerial in February — reportedly the largest in State Department history.
The State Department claims more than $515 billion in commercial gains for US firms since 20 January 2025 , supporting an estimated 1.4 million American jobs.
China dominates processing of key materials — lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths — essential for semiconductors, EVs, batteries, and weapons systems.
The Trump administration has received 78 applications for its new American AI Export Programme and concluded more than 28 bilateral critical minerals agreements as Washington intensifies its strategic competition with China across technology and supply chains, officials disclosed at a congressional hearing on 15 July.
AI Export Programme Draws Unexpected Demand
David Fogel, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Global Markets, told lawmakers that the first wave of applications for the preset consortia programme came in at nearly three times the volume officials had internally projected. 'That is significantly more, probably three times the number of applications that we were estimating internally,' Fogel said.
Applicants span major artificial intelligence companies as well as small and medium-sized businesses, signalling broad industry appetite for the initiative. The programme is designed to expand international adoption of American AI technology while explicitly preventing that technology from contributing to China's military modernisation. The Foreign Commercial Service is leading its overseas implementation.
Fogel framed the effort in unambiguous competitive terms. 'This is a race America has to win,' he said. 'Second place failure is not an option. We have to come in first vis a vis China and so we're working on that aggressively.'
Critical Minerals Push: 28-Plus Bilateral Deals
Caleb Orr, Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs, told the hearing that the United States had concluded more than 28 bilateral critical minerals agreements. The deals are intended to lay a foundation for US assistance in resource mapping and investment facilitation.
'Those agreements... give us the comfort we need to go in and help open up resources for US companies to invest in,' Orr said, noting that the pacts include commitments to protect the rule of law and safeguard American investors.
Orr also backed congressional efforts to codify US membership in FORGE — formerly known as the Minerals Security Partnership — a multilateral initiative aimed at diversifying critical mineral supply chains away from Chinese dominance. He noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted 55 international delegations at a critical minerals ministerial in February, describing it as the largest ministerial in State Department history.
Why Critical Minerals Matter
Materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are essential inputs for semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and modern weapons systems. China currently holds a commanding position in the processing of several of these materials, giving it significant leverage over global supply chains for advanced technologies.
This comes amid a broader US push to reduce strategic dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains — a concern that has intensified since export controls on advanced chips were tightened in recent years.
Staffing Gaps and Commercial Diplomacy Scale
The hearing also surfaced concerns about whether the State and Commerce departments have sufficient personnel and clearly defined mandates to execute their expanding commercial diplomacy mission. The Foreign Commercial Service operates with approximately 200 personnel present at roughly one-third of US diplomatic posts, though Fogel said those offices nevertheless covered an estimated 95% of global gross domestic product.
Orr told lawmakers the State Department had contributed to more than $515 billion in commercial gains for US companies since 20 January 2025, supporting an estimated 1.4 million American jobs. The Commerce Department separately reported $428 billion in client-verified deals during 2025.
With applications already outpacing projections and minerals diplomacy accelerating, the administration's next test will be translating headline numbers into verified supply-chain shifts before China consolidates its processing advantage further.
Point of View
Not a delivery guarantee — the harder question is how many of those consortia will clear compliance review and actually move American AI into allied markets before Chinese alternatives entrench. On minerals, 28-plus bilateral agreements sound impressive, but agreements are not mines: the gap between a signed deal and a functioning, China-independent supply chain is measured in years and capital, not diplomatic communiqués. The staffing reality — 200 Foreign Commercial Service officers covering a third of US posts — is a structural constraint that no ministerial headcount can paper over. Washington is moving faster than before, but the race it is describing is one where its opponent already controls the processing infrastructure.
NationPress
15 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the American AI Export Programme?
The American AI Export Programme is a US government initiative designed to expand international adoption of American artificial intelligence technology while preventing it from contributing to China's military modernisation. It received 78 applications in its first wave — nearly three times the number officials had internally projected.
Why has the US signed more than 28 critical minerals agreements?
The agreements are part of Washington's effort to secure reliable access to materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements, which are essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and defence systems. China dominates the processing of several of these materials, giving it significant leverage over global supply chains.
What is FORGE and why does it matter?
FORGE, formerly known as the Minerals Security Partnership, is a multilateral initiative that brings together the United States and partner countries to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from Chinese control. The Trump administration has backed congressional efforts to formally codify US membership in the body.
How large is the US Foreign Commercial Service, and is it enough?
The Foreign Commercial Service has approximately 200 personnel and is present at roughly one-third of US diplomatic posts, though officials say those offices cover about 95% of global GDP. Lawmakers raised concerns at the hearing about whether staffing levels and defined responsibilities are sufficient for the expanding commercial diplomacy mission.
What commercial gains has the US claimed from this push?
The State Department told lawmakers it contributed to more than $515 billion in commercial gains for US companies since 20 January 2025, supporting an estimated 1.4 million American jobs. The Commerce Department separately reported $428 billion in client-verified deals during 2025.
