Bay of Bengal system may intensify into severe cyclone by Monday; fishermen warned
Synopsis
A Bay of Bengal low-pressure system is forecast to become a cyclonic storm by Monday evening — and may intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. With no landfall location yet confirmed, fishermen have been ordered back to shore and the Coast Guard has pre-positioned ships and aircraft, putting a wide stretch of India's eastern coastline on alert.
Key Takeaways
A low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal is forecast to become a cyclonic storm by Monday evening, 17 November .
The IMD has flagged possible further intensification into a severe cyclonic storm as the system strengthens over open sea.
No landfall location or timing has been specified in the current forecast.
Moderate rainfall is expected in parts of Tamil Nadu on Sunday and Monday ; Chennai may receive light rain on Sunday.
A strong wind warning for the southwest Bay of Bengal is in effect until 18 November .
The Indian Coast Guard has ships and aircraft on standby for rescue operations; fishermen have been directed to return to shore.
A low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal is forecast to develop into a cyclonic storm by Monday evening and could subsequently intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned. Fishermen at sea have been directed to return to shore immediately, while the Indian Coast Guard has placed ships and aircraft on standby for rescue operations.
How the System Is Expected to Develop
According to the IMD, the low-pressure area is likely to consolidate and strengthen through Sunday, 16 November, moving in a west-northwestward direction. By Monday evening, 17 November, it is expected to reach cyclonic storm intensity over the central parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal.
The department has flagged the possibility of further intensification beyond the cyclonic storm stage — potentially reaching severe cyclonic storm strength — as the system gathers momentum over open sea. Strengthening is projected to occur in stages over Sunday and Monday.
Notably, the IMD has not specified a landfall location or timing, nor has it indicated the precise extent of coastal impact. The immediate advisories remain focused on rainfall across parts of Tamil Nadu and strong winds over the southwest Bay of Bengal.
Rainfall Outlook for Tamil Nadu
Moderate rainfall is expected on Sunday and Monday across districts adjoining the Western Ghats and in the southern parts of Tamil Nadu. Chennai is likely to receive light rainfall on Sunday, according to the regional weather centre.
The wind warning over the southwest Bay of Bengal extends until Wednesday, 18 November, covering a wider window than the two-day rainfall forecast for the state's interior districts.
Fishermen Advisory and Coast Guard Readiness
The IMD has instructed all fishermen currently at sea to return to the coast in view of expected rough conditions and strong winds. The advisory is in effect for the southwest Bay of Bengal through 18 November.
The Indian Coast Guard announced that its ships and aircraft are on standby and prepared to undertake search-and-rescue operations should the developing system necessitate emergency response. The maritime preparations signal the seriousness with which authorities are treating the forecast, even as a landfall track remains undefined.
What to Watch Next
Coastal communities in Tamil Nadu and potentially neighbouring states should monitor updated IMD bulletins closely over the next 48 hours, as track and intensity forecasts for Bay of Bengal systems can shift rapidly. The absence of a confirmed landfall zone means preparedness across a broad stretch of the eastern coastline remains essential. Authorities are expected to issue more specific advisories once the system consolidates into a named cyclone.
Point of View
But the absence of a landfall projection leaves coastal administrations in a preparedness limbo. Bay of Bengal systems are historically notorious for rapid intensification and last-minute track shifts, as seen in cyclones Fani and Michaung. The Coast Guard's pre-positioning is prudent; however, state disaster management authorities need a track estimate, not just a wind warning, to mobilise evacuations effectively. The next 24 hours of IMD bulletins will be decisive.
NationPress
15 Nov 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current status of the Bay of Bengal weather system?
As of 15 November 2026, a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to strengthen through Sunday and develop into a cyclonic storm by Monday evening. It could subsequently intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, according to the IMD.
Where is the cyclone expected to make landfall?
The IMD has not yet specified a landfall location or timing in its current forecast. The advisory at this stage focuses on wind warnings over the Bay of Bengal and rainfall in Tamil Nadu, with more specific guidance expected as the system consolidates.
Which areas of Tamil Nadu will be affected by rain?
Moderate rainfall is likely on Sunday and Monday in districts adjoining the Western Ghats and across the southern parts of Tamil Nadu. Chennai is expected to receive light rainfall on Sunday, according to the regional weather centre.
Why have fishermen been asked to return to shore?
Strong winds are forecast over the southwest Bay of Bengal until 18 November as the low-pressure system intensifies. The IMD has directed all fishermen currently at sea to return to the coast immediately to avoid dangerous conditions.
What preparations has the Indian Coast Guard made?
The Indian Coast Guard has placed ships and aircraft on standby for search-and-rescue operations. The maritime preparations were announced in advance of the system's anticipated intensification into a cyclone.
