Will NDA Maintain Its Edge Over Mahagathbandhan in Bihar?
Click to start listening
Synopsis
In Bihar's upcoming Assembly elections, the ruling NDA is projected to maintain a slim lead over the Mahagathbandhan coalition, according to Axis My India. With intense competition, the RJD emerges as a key player, potentially becoming the largest party. How will this impact Bihar's political landscape?
Key Takeaways
- NDA leads with a narrow margin in Bihar elections.
- RJD emerges as the largest party with significant seat projections.
- Vote shares are closely contested between NDA and MGB.
- Jan Suraaj Party is expected to have a minimal impact.
- Predictions highlight the evolving political dynamics in Bihar.
New Delhi, Nov 12 (NationPress) The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is anticipated to retain power in Bihar, albeit with a narrow advantage over the RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB), according to the latest Exit poll conducted by Axis My India on Wednesday.
The esteemed polling agency forecasts that the NDA, led by Nitish Kumar, will secure between 121 and 140 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to win 98-118 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party, guided by Prashant Kishor, is predicted to attain between 0-2 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
As per the Exit poll estimates from Axis My India, the NDA is projected to receive a 43 percent vote share, while the MGB is likely to settle for 41 percent, which is 2 percent lower.
Notably, the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD is forecasted to emerge as the largest party in this crucial Assembly election, expected to win 67-76 seats independently, achieving a strike rate exceeding 50 percent.
Both BJP and JD(U) are projected to capture 18 percent vote share each, while the Chirag Paswan-led LJP (RV), Jitan Ram Manjhi-led HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha-led RLM are anticipated to receive 5 percent and 1-1 percent vote share respectively.
Within the MGB coalition, the RJD is expected to gain 24 percent vote share, the Congress 10 percent, and Mukesh Sahani-led VIP is set to capture 2 percent votes. The left-wing parties, including CPI(ML), CPI, and CPI (M), are projected to collectively obtain 5 percent of the votes.
The Jan Suraaj Party is estimated to garner 4 percent vote share, while Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM is likely to attract over 1 percent votes, contradicting expectations that the significant voter turnout indicated a mandate against the ruling Nitish Kumar government.
Axis My India's projections differ from those of other polling organizations, which generally indicate a decisive lead for the ruling NDA and a notable setback for the grand alliance.
For the emerging Jan Suraaj, Axis My India's forecasts align with other pollsters, suggesting that this party, which has become a focal point in the Bihar elections, is expected to finish at the bottom with a projected win of 0-2 seats.
Point of View
It's crucial to note the significance of these numbers. The tight race between the NDA and MGB reflects a dynamic political landscape in Bihar. While the NDA appears to have an edge, the emergence of RJD as a formidable force cannot be ignored. Staying informed about these developments is essential for understanding the broader implications for governance and democracy in India.
NationPress
12/11/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected seat count for NDA in Bihar?
The NDA is projected to win between 121 and 140 seats.
How does the vote share compare between NDA and MGB?
The NDA is expected to secure 43 percent vote share, while the MGB is anticipated to have 41 percent.
Who is predicted to be the largest party?
The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is forecasted to be the single largest party with 67-76 seats.
What is the expected performance of the Jan Suraaj Party?
The Jan Suraaj Party is likely to secure 0-2 seats in the elections.
Are these predictions consistent across different polling agencies?
Axis My India's projections vary from other agencies, which generally favor the NDA more decisively.
