The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday, 13 June forecast that the country will receive below normal rainfall this monsoon season — approximately 98% of the long-period average — with the El Nino phenomenon expected to remain active through the entire season. While the southwest monsoon has already covered most of the Southern Peninsula, the North-East, and parts of East India, its northward and westward progress is set to slow considerably.

El Nino the key driver

IMD scientist Pradeep Sharma confirmed at a press briefing that El Nino has turned active and is projected to persist throughout the monsoon season. 'We expect El Nino will be active throughout the monsoon season,' Sharma said. 'According to our long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon, we are expecting below normal, about 98 per cent of normal rainfall in the whole country,' he added. El Nino — a warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures — typically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall by disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns over the subcontinent.

Western Disturbance Brings Temporary Relief to North India

IMD scientist Naresh Kumar noted that a western disturbance over north Haryana and adjoining areas has triggered rainfall and thunderstorm activity across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and the Himalayan region over the past two days. Wind speeds in the region may reach 40 to 50 kilometres per hour, he said. An orange alert had been issued earlier; a yellow alert is currently in effect for Delhi-NCR. Separate orange alerts have been issued for Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Temperature Drop Across North India

The western disturbance has brought temperatures in north India down by six to eight degrees Celsius, according to Kumar. However, he cautioned that temperatures are expected to rise by four to six degrees in the coming days, though they will remain at or below normal levels. 'In Delhi-NCR, we are expecting light rainfall along with strong winds, which is why we have issued a yellow alert,' Kumar said.

Monsoon Coverage and Advance Outlook

As of 13 June, the monsoon has covered most of South Peninsular India up to Maharashtra, with its further advance having slowed. The North-East and parts of eastern India are also under monsoon influence. Over the next two to three days, the IMD expects the monsoon to extend further into Bihar, Odisha, parts of Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand, after which progress is likely to remain gradual. This comes amid growing concern from agricultural planners, as a below-normal monsoon directly affects kharif crop sowing timelines and reservoir replenishment across rain-dependent states.