Northeast monsoon deficiency crosses 40% in June; IMD warns July likely below normal too
Synopsis
Seven of eight Northeastern states missed the monsoon badly in June 2026 — with Meghalaya down 74% and Manipur down 71% — and IMD now warns that July will also likely fall short of normal nationwide. With El Niño set to intensify through the second half of 2026, the Kharif season and rain-fed livelihoods across the region face a compounding threat.
Key Takeaways
Seven of eight Northeastern states recorded a combined monsoon rainfall deficiency of over 40 per cent in June 2026 .
Meghalaya ( 74% deficient) and Manipur ( 71% deficient) were classified as 'Large Deficient' by IMD .
Sikkim was the only exception, receiving 515.9 mm against a normal of 438.2 mm .
IMD projects July 2026 rainfall to remain below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average ( 280.4 mm ) for most of India.
El Niño , expected to be one of the strongest on record, is forecast to intensify through the second half of 2026 .
The shortfall threatens the Kharif cropping season across the Northeast, where large populations depend on rain-fed agriculture.
Seven of the eight Northeastern states recorded a combined monsoon rainfall deficiency of more than 40 per cent in June 2026, the opening month of the four-month Southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs, and the influence of El Niño were cited as the primary drivers — even as parts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh simultaneously faced heavy rains and flooding.
State-by-State Rainfall Deficit
Meghalaya and Manipur bore the sharpest shortfall, recording 'Large Deficient' rainfall of 74 per cent and 71 per cent below normal, respectively, as per IMD classification. The five remaining deficit states — Nagaland (56 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (44 per cent), Assam (37 per cent), Mizoram (37 per cent), and Tripura (36 per cent) — averaged a deficiency of roughly 42 per cent for the month.
The sole exception was Sikkim, which registered slightly excess rainfall, receiving 515.9 mm against a normal of 438.2 mm. Under IMD norms, rainfall is categorised as 'normal' only when it falls within a band of 19 per cent above or below the long-term average.
IMD's July Outlook and El Niño Warning
An IMD official stated that monthly average rainfall across the country during July 2026 is most likely to remain below normal — below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 280.4 mm. Below-normal rainfall is expected over most of the country, with exceptions in parts of Northwest and Northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated.
Partha Roy, Director of IMD's Agartala Meteorological Centre, said the combined impact of El Niño and other meteorological factors had weakened the Southwest monsoon. 'Because of the El Niño conditions, the Southwest monsoon has remained weak so far, resulting in deficient rainfall. This climate phenomenon is likely to intensify further in the coming months,' Roy said. Tripura received 250.3 mm of rainfall in June, 41 per cent below its monthly normal, and July is expected to remain below normal to near-normal for the state, with both maximum and minimum temperatures likely above normal.
A weather expert noted that one of the strongest El Niño events on record is expected to develop in the second half of 2026, potentially triggering hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia. The phenomenon's impact is likely to be amplified by ongoing global climate change, according to the expert.
Agriculture Under Pressure
Agricultural scientists and IMD officials underscored that normal July rainfall is critical for the ongoing Kharif cropping season, when sowing activities across the country — including the Northeastern region — gather momentum. The Southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, making it the backbone of rain-fed agriculture across the eight Northeastern states.
A senior official of the Manipur Agriculture Department said the unprecedented 71 per cent rainfall deficiency in June, compounded by the state's prolonged ethnic conflict and inadequate irrigation infrastructure, had severely disrupted farming. 'However, the state government has taken adequate security arrangements and other supportive measures to facilitate farming activities in both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the Kharif cropping season,' the official said.
Monsoon Onset and What Comes Next
The Southwest monsoon advanced into substantial parts of the Northeastern region on 7 June, two days behind its normal onset date, and covered the entire region by 10 June, according to IMD's meteorological centres in Guwahati and Agartala. Despite prevailing El Niño conditions, meteorologists expressed cautious optimism that the region would receive adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months, particularly during the peak phase of the season. Adequate rainfall in the coming weeks would also help replenish rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater resources across the region.
Point of View
Weak Bay of Bengal systems, and an El Niño that forecasters say could be among the most powerful on record. Manipur's situation is especially acute, where rainfall failure is layering onto an already fractured agricultural economy strained by ethnic conflict. The IMD's cautious optimism about the peak monsoon months may prove justified, but the Kharif window is narrow, and every deficit week in July compounds the food security risk for communities that have no irrigation buffer to fall back on.
NationPress
1 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Northeast India record such a large monsoon deficit in June 2026?
IMD officials attributed the over 40 per cent rainfall deficiency to weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs, and the influence of El Niño. The Southwest monsoon also arrived two days late in the region, on 7 June, and remained subdued through the month.
Which Northeastern states were worst affected by the June rainfall deficit?
Meghalaya recorded the steepest shortfall at 74 per cent below normal, followed by Manipur at 71 per cent — both classified as 'Large Deficient' by IMD. Nagaland (56%), Arunachal Pradesh (44%), Assam (37%), Mizoram (37%), and Tripura (36%) also recorded significant deficits. Sikkim was the only state to register slightly excess rainfall.
What is IMD's rainfall forecast for July 2026?
IMD has forecast that July 2026 rainfall across the country is most likely to remain below normal — below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average of 280.4 mm. Below-normal rainfall is expected over most regions, with exceptions in parts of Northwest and Northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region.
How does El Niño affect the Southwest monsoon?
El Niño typically suppresses the Southwest monsoon by weakening moisture-bearing winds and reducing cloud formation over the Indian subcontinent. IMD's Agartala Meteorological Centre Director Partha Roy said El Niño conditions had kept the monsoon weak in June and warned the phenomenon could intensify further in the coming months.
What is the impact of the monsoon deficit on Kharif farming in the Northeast?
Agricultural scientists and IMD officials have flagged serious risk to the Kharif cropping season, when sowing across the Northeast peaks in July. Manipur's Agriculture Department noted that the 71 per cent June deficit, combined with inadequate irrigation and ongoing ethnic conflict, has severely disrupted farming in the state. The Southwest monsoon supplies nearly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, making it critical for rain-fed agriculture across the region.
