The Maharashtra government on 8 June 2025 urged farmers across the state to hold off on sowing activities despite the monsoon's arrival in South Konkan, warning that rainfall intensity will remain insufficient for widespread sowing until at least June 15. The advisory, issued late Sunday evening, cautions that premature sowing ahead of predicted dry spells could force farmers into costly re-sowing cycles.

What the forecast says

The Meteorological Department has indicated that while isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible across Vidarbha, Marathwada, Khandesh, and Central Maharashtra through June 15, these showers are not yet sufficient to support germination at scale. Dry spells are expected to follow, making early sowing a financial risk.

Conditions are expected to improve significantly after June 18. The Konkan coastal belt and Ghat (mountainous) regions are forecast to receive above-average rainfall by the end of June, with intensifying activity likely over the next three to four days in those zones. For the rest of Maharashtra, isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue in the interim.

CM Fadnavis flags El Niño risk

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis explicitly flagged the El Niño context in his statement. 'Farmers are eagerly awaiting the monsoon. However, this is an El Niño year. While there is a 22 per cent probability of average rainfall, our primary focus is to ensure that farmers in Marathwada and other drought-prone regions are not forced into double-sowing (re-sowing). The government's emphasis will be on maximising crop yield with minimum water, thereby minimising losses,' Fadnavis said.

El Niño transitions are known to suppress Indian monsoon currents, leading to prolonged dry spells and uneven distribution. Historically drought-prone districts such as Beed, Latur, and Osmanabad in Marathwada, along with large parts of Vidarbha, rely heavily on dryland farming. A failed initial sowing season in these pockets directly dents agrarian output and deepens rural economic distress.

The double-sowing trap

Agricultural experts and state officials strongly advise against sowing until the soil has received at least 75 to 100 mm of cumulative rainfall and moisture has penetrated deep enough to sustain germination. Maharashtra's cash-crop belts — primarily soybean, cotton, and pulses — see farmers routinely rushing to sow after the first pre-monsoon showers, often with damaging results.

If a dry spell follows the initial showers, as predicted through mid-June, sprouted seeds wither in the dry soil. Farmers are then compelled to purchase a second round of expensive seeds and fertilisers, deepening their dependence on credit and worsening debt cycles, according to agriculture department sources.

Government's defensive agronomy push

The state advisory signals a broader strategic shift toward what officials describe as defensive agronomy — preparing for lower-rainfall scenarios rather than assuming a normal monsoon. The Agriculture Department is expected to promote short-duration crop varieties, micro-irrigation systems including drip and sprinkler setups, and contingency crop planning should the dry spell extend beyond late June. Citizens have also been urged to take safety precautions against lightning and sudden weather changes in the coming days.